汇丰银行-韩国-宏观经济-韩国预算方案：轻度扩张-20170830-korea budget proposal：marginally expansionary-hsbc

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1、Flashnote30August2017KoreabudgetproposalECONOMICSKOREAMarginallyexpansionaryFiscalspendingtoincrease4.6%y-o-yin2018,accordingtoaJamesLeegovernmentproposal,moderatelyfasterthan2017EconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedjames.dh.lee@hs

2、bc.com.hkThemedium-termoutlookforfiscalpolicyistobemore+85228221647expansionary,butspendingdetailsarelesssupportiveofgrowthDayeonHongRatesStrategistTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedRates:ImpactonbondmarketlimitedgivenKTBgrossdayeonhong@hsb

3、c.com.hk+85229966569issuancewillonlyincreasemarginally,toKRW106.6trnEconomics:TheMinistryofStrategyandFinance(MoSF)releasedits2018budgetproposal,whichlookstoincreasespendingby4.6%y-o-ytoKRW429trn.Thefiscalpolicystancehasturnedmoderatelymoreexpansionarytha

4、ninpreviousyears,althoughspendingdetailssuggestthegrowthimpulsecouldbelessthanwhattheheadlineindicates.Taxcollectionistoexceedbudgetexpectationsin2017,whichshouldprovideabufferforanyshortfallinfiscalrevenuesnextyear.However,withfiscalpolicyturningslightly

5、moreexpansionaryinthemediumterm,thefiscalbalance,excludingcontributionfromsocialsecurityfunds,islikelytorecordalargerdeficitinthecomingyears,withriskstiltedtothedownside,inourview.Rates:Basedonthe2018budget,theMoSFwillissueKRW106.6trnofKoreaTreasurybonds(

6、KTBs)in2018(Bloomberg,29August2017),only2.8%morethantheplannedissuanceofKRW103.7trnin2017.Netissuanceisexpectedtobereducedmarginally,toKRW37trnin2018fromKRW37.6trnin2017.Therearelimitedimplicationsforthebondmarketfromthisbudgetannouncement.Whileasupplemen

7、tarybudgetispossiblein2018,itistooearlyformarketparticipantstopriceinthelikelihoodofadditionalKTBissuance.1.2018budgetproposalandmedium-termfiscaloutlook_______2017_______2018201920202021BudgetExtrabudgetFiscalexpenditure400.5410.1429.0453.3467.7500.9%y-o

8、-y3.7%6.1%4.6%*5.7%5.2%5.1%Fiscalrevenues414.3423.1447.1471.4492513.5Taxrevenues242.3251.1268.2287.6301315Fiscalbalance**-28.3-28.3-28.6-33.0-38.4-44.3%ofGDP-1.7%-1.7%-1.6%-1.8%-2.0%-2.1%Governmentdebt682.4669.9708.