汇丰银行-印度：期望很大，转变很小

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1、EQUITYSTRATEGY●ASIA23October2017AbouttransformationsManyIndianindustriesareinaflux–eyetransformationthroughrestructuringandconsolidationStructuralchangesarealong-termpositiveforROEsButhighvaluationsremainadragonequities;weareunderweightonthemarketIn1990,whentheFlyingDutchmanw

2、asstillastudent,hepickedupVSNaipaul’sIndia:AbookwereadalongtimeAMillionMutiniesNowatabookshopsomewhereinAmsterdam.It’saboutthechangesthatagoNaipaulsawinpostcolonialIndia,somethinghedescribedasmanyrevolutionswithinarevolution,“acountryofamillionlittlemutinies”.Thesechanges,orlittlemu

3、tinies,arepartofthebeginningofanewwayforIndia,partofitsrestoration.ThebookgotNaipaulaNobelPrizeinLiteratureafewyearslater.ThetitleofthisbookcameupagainonarecenttriptoMumbai.InconversationswithIndiananalystsandcorporates,itstruckushowmanyIndianindustriesarebeingreshapedandrestoredasw

4、ell.Thisisnothingcomparedwithacountryfindingitsnewdestinyaftergainingindependence.Nonetheless,thechangesareaversionofwhatledNaipaultodescribeIndiaas“acountryofamillionlittlemutinies”.Lookatwhatishappeninginafewkeyindustries:Indiantelecomsfacedisruptionfromanewentrant,RelianceIndustr

5、ies’Jio;Indianrealestateisinacompletestateofflux;foreignbrandsandonlinetravelagentshavereshuffledthepackintheIndianhotelindustry;IndianITplayersneedtoreshapetheirbusinessinlightofweakdemand;andIndianFMCGisdealingwithitsown“mutiny”intheformofnewentrantPatanjali.Thesechangesarenotalwa

6、yseasytonotice.WhilemanyobserversfocusonimplementationCorporateIndiaischanging,oftheGSTandtheaftermathofthedemonetisationinIndia,itisthiscorporaterestructuringthatslowlyisprogressingslowlyinthebackground.Aweakereconomycouldwellacceleratetheprocessofrestructuringandrebuilding.Weargue

7、thatthiswouldbewelcome,especiallyifitallowsIndianROEstoriseintheyearsahead.OurvisittoIndiawas,therefore,apositiveone.Weleftthecountryfeelingmorepositiveaboutitslocalequitymarketthanwhenwehadarrivedafewdaysearlier.Still,weremainunderweight.WebelievethisisnotyetthetimetorevisitIndiane

8、quities.Asweshowint