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1、Economics-DataReactions15August2017IndiaPranjulBhandariJulytradedeficitnarrows,butnotfortoolongChiefEconomist,IndiaHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalIndia'stradedeficitnarrowedinJulyastheweaknessinimportsoutpacedthatofMarkets(India)PrivateLimitedexports.Weakerimportsreflecttheslugishness
2、indomesticdemand,anddetails+912222681841pranjul.bhandari@hsbc.co.insuggestthatinvestmentismuchweakerthanconsumption.Notwithstandingtoday'sprint,weexpectthetradedeficittoremainwiderthanlastyearonthebackViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:ofastrongerRupeesupportingimportsoverexports,weakexp
3、ortordersandhttp://www.research.hsbc.comexpectationofhigherimportdemandonceGSTrelateduncertaintiesareputtorest.IssuerofreportHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)PrivateLimitedFactsDisclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththeIndia'stradedeficitnarrowedtoUSD11.5bninJuly,fr
4、omUSD13.0bninJune.TheApril-Julydisclosuresandtheanalysttradedeficit,however,standsatanelevatedUSD51.7bninFY18(comparedtoUSD27.1bnincertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,FY17).whichformspartofitImplicationsTheweaknessinexportscontinuedunabatedNon-oilexportsf
5、ellsharplyinJuly(by3.2%m-o-m,seasonallyadjusted),continuingthecontractionarytrendwhichhadstartedinMarch.Involumetermstoo,ourestimatesshowthatexportscontinuedtoweaken(chart1and2)Lookingacrosscommodities,gemsandjewelry,pharmaceuticalproducts,textilesandtobaccocontributednegativel
6、ytoexportgrowth.Theonlysilverliningwasthatexportsofthemoresophisticatedengineeringgoodsroseanotchoverthemonth.TheINRhasappreciatedroughly6%againstthedollarsinceDecember2016,anditistemptingtoattributetheentireweaknesstoexchangerates.However,ourresearchshowsthatexchangeratesexpla
7、inunder20%ofexportsweakness.Thegiantshareof50%isexplainedbydomesticbottlenecks,and33%byworldgrowth(see:India:Churningtheocean:Findingthecureforailingexports,17October2016).GST-relateddemanddisruptionslikelytohaveloweredtheimportbillWebelievethatdemanddisruptionsemanatingfromthe
8、uncertaintyaroundtheGSTimplementedonJuly1contributedto
