资源描述：
《汇丰银行-india：riding the inflation wave-20170619-hsbc》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、Economics19June2017India:RidingtheinflationwavePranjulBhandariLatestop-edpublishedbyBusinessStandardChiefEconomist,IndiaHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalThecurrentvirtuouscycleoffallinginflationexpectationsmaywelldeliverthe4%Markets(India)PrivateLimitedtargetrate+912222681841pranjul.bhandari@hsbc.co.inW
2、atchingIndia’sinflationtrendsthesedaysgetsushummingTheDoors’1967popularsingle,‘Breakonthroughtotheotherside’.Andwhynot?InflationinIndiahasclearlychangedsides.ViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:http://www.research.hsbc.comFrom11%intheFY09-11period,ithasfallento4.5%inFY17andislikelytoaverage3.6%inFY18.Sopr
3、omisingisthisthattheRBI,initsJune7policymeeting,slasheditsfullyearinflationIssuerofreportforecastbyawhopping140bps,thelargestcutinrecentmemory.What'sgoingonhere?AndhowHSBCSecuritiesandCapitallongwillitlast?Markets(India)PrivateLimitedDisclosures&DisclaimerWeranaseriesoftheoreticallyrigorousyets
4、impleregressionstofigureoutwhatreallydrivesThisreportmustbereadwiththeinflation.Inparticular,wemodelledconsumerprices,theoutputgap(ameasureofthedifferencedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosurebetweentheeconomy’sactualoutputandpotentialoutput),MinimumSupportPrices(government-appen
5、dix,andwiththeDisclaimer,setfloorsonagriculturalproduceprices,whichoftentimesworkastheceiling)andruralwages.whichformspartofitTheseareallinterconnectedandimportantinunderstandingtheintricaciesofinflationinIndia.Ourfindingsgiveussomepowerfulmessages.First,wefoundthatitisthesame'castofcharacters'
6、impactinginflation,regardlessofwhetherweareassessingperiodsofrising(e.g.FY09-11)orfalling(e.g.FY14-17)inflation.Second,wefindthatinflationexpectations,bothbackwardandforwardcombined,explainabout75%ofthetrendsinactualinflation.Third,theremaining25%isexplainedby‘otherfactors’,suchasreservoirlevel
7、s,policydiscretion(forinstanceinthesettingofMSPs),globalcommoditypricesandtherupee.Inflationexpectationsareastubbornanimal.Oncetheytakehold,theyfeedoffthemselves,fallingintoamulti-yearcycle.FY09-11wasaviciouscycleofinflationexpect
