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1、Economics12July2017IndiaPranjulBhandariInflationfallssharplywhiletheriseinIIPremainsfragileChiefEconomist,IndiaHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalJuneCPIinflationfelltoitslowestsincetheturnofthemillennium,ledbyfurtherMarkets(India)PrivateLimitedfallinfoodandfuel.Coreinflationremainedbenign.Industrialproduction
2、+912222681841pranjul.bhandari@hsbc.co.inimprovedmeasuredly,ledbyconsumptiongoods.However,capital,infrastructureandconstructiongoodsremainedunexciting.Thesustainedfallinpricepressuresandsluggishgrowthpointtoa25bpsratecutonAugust2,takingthereporatetoAayushi6%.ChaudharyAssociateFactsHSBCSecuritiesandCa
3、pitalMarkets(India)PrivateLimitedJuneConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)inflationgrew1.5%y-o-yversus2.2%inMay,thelowestsince+912222682761theturnofthemillennium,andbelowmarketandourexpectationsof1.6%and1.7%respectively.aayushi.chaudhary@hsbc.co.inThefallwasledbyfurtherdisinflationinfoodandfuelprices,bothinannual
4、andsequentialterms.Coreinflationtoo,remainedbenign.ViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:http://www.research.hsbc.comThenewIIPseriesgrew1.7%y-o-yinMayversus2.8%previously,belowtheconsensusandourforecastof2.0%.Onseasonallyadjustedbasis,itimprovedatad,asgrowthinmanufacturingandIssuerofreportelectricityproductionof
5、fsetthedraginmining.HSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)PrivateLimitedDisclosures&DisclaimerImplicationsThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystFoodandfueltakeCPIinflationtoitslowestsincetheturnofthecertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,millenniumwhichformspartofitC
6、ontinuingthetrendfromMay,foodandfuelpriceseasedfurther,takingtheoverallinflationtoitslowestsincetheturnofthemillennium.Lookingacrossthesub-componentsoffood,onaseasonallyadjustedsequentialbasis,thefallinthepriceofpulsesandoilsmorethanoffsetthemodestrisein‘egg,meatandfish’,fruits,vegetablesandsugar.Th
7、efuelpriceindexfellevenmoresharplythaninMaythankstothecutindomesticpetrolanddieselprices.CoreinflationremainsbenignOurpreferredmeasureofcoreinflation(headlineexcludingfood,fuel,petrolanddiesel)remaine
