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1、Economics12October2017IndiaAayushiChaudharyFoodkeepsinflationlow,manufacturingIIPrecoversAssociateHSBCSecuritiesandCapital4SeptemberCPIremainedunchangedduetolowerthanexpectedMarkets(India)PrivateLimitedfoodinflation,whilecoreandfueltickedup+912222685543aayushi.chaudhary@hsbc.co.in4AugustIP
2、revealssignsofrecoveryinmanufacturing,evenifthepaceofexpansionremainsdisappointingViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:http://www.research.hsbc.com4WeexpecttheRBItoremainonholdovertheforeseeablefuture,evenasFY18growthtoclocksinlowerthanthecentralbank’sIssuerofreportforecastHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMark
3、ets(India)PrivateLimitedDisclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththeFactsdisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosure-SeptemberCPIinflationremainedunchangedat3.3%y-o-yfromAugust(whichwasrevisedappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofitdownfrom3.4%),muchlowerthanourandma
4、rketexpectations.-Foodinflationcameinsofterthanexpectedat1.8%y-o-y,whilefuelandcoreinflation(exfood,fuel,petrolanddiesel)grewmuchfasterat5.6%and4.4%respectively.-Augustindustrialproductionacceleratedto4.3%y-o-yfrom0.9%inJuly(reviseddownfrom1.2%earlier).-Manufacturinggrowthfinallypickedupat
5、3.1%y-o-y,miningandelectricityalsogrewimpressivelyat9.4%and8.3%respectivelyImplicationsCorepricestickedupfurther,faceupsiderisksfromweakmanufacturingCoreinflation(excludingfood,fuel,petrolanddiesel)acceleratedinSeptember,contributing~2.0ppttoheadline.Theuptickwasexpected,andinitsrecentmone
6、tarypolicyreview,theRBIhadalreadyexpressedconcernsover‘generalizedmomentum’buildingupincoreprices,somethingwehadalsohighlightedinourmonetarypolicypreview(see:IndiaRBIWatch:Takingstockofinflationrisks,26September2017).Theongoingweaknessinmanufacturingcouldtranslateintoaproductionshortfallre
7、lativetoconsumptiondemand,therebyputtingpressureoncorepricesoverthecomingmonths.Infact,mostitemsunderthe‘miscellaneous’category,whichincludesmostlyconsumergoodsandservices,tickeduponasequentialbasisinSeptember.Meanwhile,theimpactoftheHouseandRentAllowances(HRA
