麦格理-印度-宏观经济-mpc会议速览：依然关注于通胀问题

《麦格理-印度-宏观经济-mpc会议速览：依然关注于通胀问题》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、INDIAIndiaEconomicsCPI–Headline,FoodandCore(YoY%)MinutesoftheMPC–Stillconcerned16%HeadlineCPIinflationYoY%14%aboutinflationCoreCPIInflation(CPIex12%FoodexFuel)10%CPIFoodinflationMinutesofOctoberMPCmeetingreleased:TheRBIonWednesday8%releasedtheminutesoftheMPCmeetingheldonOctober3–4,

2、2017.Recall,6%theRBIhadheldkeyratesunchangedwithavoteof5–1,withMPCmember,4%Dr.Dholakia,dissentingfora25bpratecut.WhileMPCmember,Dr.Patra,2%votedforapause,hereiteratedagainthattheRBImayneedtobeprepared0%tohikeratesbasedoninflationtrajectory(Dr.PatrahadindicatedneedforaratehikeinApril

3、2017aswell).ep-12SMar-13Sep-13Mar-14Sep-14Mar-15Sep-15Mar-16Sep-16Mar-17Sep-17Source:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,October2017ThedetailsoftheMPCrevealthatallmemberswhovotedforthestatusquoremainconcernedabout:InflationtoaveragelowerthanRBI’sUpsideriskstoinflation:TheMPCminuteshighlightedt

4、hatallexpectationsin2HFY18membersremainconcernedwithregardtoinflationtrajectory,especiallyastheinflationprintsforJulyandAugustindicatedabroad-basedCPICoreCPIRBI'sglidepathincreaseinprices.TheriskstoinflationaspertheMPCmembersstems12%fromriskoffiscalslippages,risksfromcommodityprices

5、pikesandgeo-Forecasts10%politicaluncertainty.TheMPCmembersnotethatinflationexpectations8%8%havemoderated;however,theystillremainelevatedandthedownward6%6%5%adjustmentremainsslow.4%4%Lookingforfurtherdatatoassessifslowdowningrowthis2%transitory:TheMPCmembersnotethatthereisaslowdowni

6、ngrowth,0%especiallyasindicatedbytheGDPgrowthrateforQEJune.However,ar-12ep-12ar-13ep-13ar-14ep-14ar-15ep-15ar-16ep-16ar-17ep-17ar-18ep-18ar-19tomakeamorecertainassessmentwhethertheslowdowningrowthisMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMtransitory,theMPCislikelytowaitformoredatapoints.CommentsSource:CEIC,M

7、acquarieResearch,October2017fromDr.PatraandDr.Patelindicatethatrecentdatapointsindicateanimprovementingrowthandgrowthoutlookshouldbebetterin2HFY18.MembersoftheRBIMPCOurview:ExpectonemoreratecutinFY18:WebelievethattheRBIfacesadilemmaofmanagingaweaker-than-expectedgrowthoutlookandkee

8、pingtheinflationtra