rise of china and india

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1、Draftfordiscussionandcommentonly1TheriseofChinaandIndiaandthecommodityboom:economicandenvironmentalimplicationsforlow-incomecountries12IanCoxheadandSisiraJayasuriyaAbstractTherapidgrowthofChinaand,morerecently,ofIndia,ishavingmajoreffectsoneveryfacetoftheglobaleconomy,includingtheenvironment,andthi

2、sinfluenceisprojectedtocontinuetoexpandintheforeseeablefuture.Thegrowthofthesetwo‘giants’inthedevelopingworldhasproducedamassivesurgeinmanufacturingandservicesexportsaswellasinimportsofbothintermediatesandprimarycommodities.Inmanufactures,evenascompetitivepressureshavesharpenedinlabor-intensiveexpo

3、rtsectors,newgrowthopportunitieshaveemergedforcomplementaryexpansion.Benefitingfromtradeandinvestmentliberalization,internationalproductionnetworkscloselytiedtoFDIandmultinationalenterpriseshavethrived.Theyhaveenhancedintra-regionaltradeandintensifiedAsianregionalintegration.Theotherdramaticimpacto

4、nglobalmarketshasbeenthecurrentcommoditypriceboom,aproductofhugeincreaseindemandforenergy,mineralsandothercommodities.Thecommodityboom,too,hashadparticularlystrongeffectsonresource-richAsianeconomies.Whataretheimplicationsfordevelopingeconomiesofthegrowthofthesenew‘giants’inthecontextofnewpatternso

5、fproductionandtrade?Weprovideasketchofatrade-theoreticmodelthathighlightskeyeconomicforcesoperatingonresource-richeconomies.Weshowanalyticallyhowthegrowthofthe‘giants’generatesadjustmentpressuresoneithersideofthefactor-intensityspectrumoftheirownfactorendowmentrange.Wediscusshowdifferencesinrelativ

6、efactorendowmentscanproducedifferentoutcomesinthefaceofnewchallengestopre-existingpatternsofcomparativeadvantage.Wethenuseinsightsfromthemodeltoexploretheeffectsonproduction,trade,environmentandprospectsforfuturegrowth.Commodityextractionandproductioninparticularhasstrongenvironmentalimpacts,partic

7、ularlyinthecontextofweakinstitutionsandothermarketfailure,andmayhaveseriousgrowthandequityconsequences.Henceconcernsarebeingraisedaboutthenationalandglobalenvironmentalimplicationsofthecommodityboom.InSouth