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1、ECONOMICPAPERS,VOL.29,NO.3,SEPTEMBER,2010,333341Ageing,LabourForceParticipationandEducation:ComparingtheImplicationsforEconomicGrowthinChinaandIndia111JohnHicks,ParikshitK.BasuandRichardB.SappeyAnageingpopulationwillresult,overthenextfortyyears,inafallinChinaslabourforceast
2、hemoreyouthfulIndianlabourforcecontinuestogrow.How-ever,wefindthatgrowthinoutputpercapitahasbeendominated,inbothcountries,bygrowthinlabourproductivity.Chinasstrongerlabourproductiv-ityperformancehasresulted,untilrecently,fromastrongergrowthintheircapitallabourratio.Now,howev
3、er,itisthegrowthofChinastotalfactorproductivity,drivenbyamuchstrongerpublicinvestmentineducation,thatkeepsthemahead.TomatchChina,Indiamustincreaseparticipationineducationandintheworkforce,especiallyamongstwomen.Keywords:growth,productivity,education,China,India.1.Introducti
4、onLee(2009)arguesthatUnlikeChina,whosepopulationisageing,morethanhalfofIndiaspopu-lationisunder25.Ifreformscontinue,Indiawillreapasignificantdemographicdividendwellpast2themiddleofthiscentury.Leescommentsreceivelimitedsupportintheacademicliterature;manypredictthatoverthenext
5、tentofifteenyears,Chinasworkingagepopulationwillbegintocontractandthiswilltendtoretardeconomicgrowthinpercapitaterms(seeFeng,2005;FengandMason,2005;GolleyandTyers,2006;NielsenandFang,2007).Australiaisclearlyabenefi-ciaryofgrowthinthesetwoAsiangiants,andbothbusinessandgovernme
6、ntalikehaveaninter-estintheimpactofdemographicchangestakingplaceinthesetwocountriesandinthepoliciesofthegovernmentsofChinaandIndiawhichaccompanythesechanges.Moreimportantly,success-fulpolicyactiontomaintainthegrowthmomentumofbotheconomieswillbringhundredsofmillionsofpeopleo
7、utofpoverty(HerdandDougherty,2007).Inthisarticle,weadoptamethodologypreviouslyemployedintheAustraliancontextbyDayandDowrick(2004)toconsidertherelationshipbetweeneconomicgrowthandageing,labour3forceparticipationandlabourproductivityinChinaandIndia.InSection2,wefindthatdemo-gr
8、aphicchangesarerelativelyunimportantindetermininggrowthinoutputpercapitacomparedto
