uneven growth in china and india.pdf

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1、PartiallyAwakenedGiants:UnevenGrowthinChinaandIndiaCHAPTER6PartiallyAwakenedGiants:UnevenGrowthinChinaandIndia∗ShubhamChaudhuriandMartinRavallionTheemergenceofChinaandIndiaontheglobaleconomicstagehasunderstandablybeenthesubjectofmuchdiscussionininternationalmedia,businessandpolicycircles.Thenear

2、ly9percentannualrateofrealper-capitaGDPgrowththatChinahasaveragedoverthelastquartercenturyisunprecedented.AndwithanaveragegrowthrateofGDPper-capitaofnearly4percentperannumsince1981,India’s“takeoff”seemslessthanspectacularonlyincomparisonwithChina’s.Inbothcountries,thisgrowthhasbeenaccompaniedbys

3、ubstantial—inthecaseofChina,dramatic—reductionsintheaggregateincidenceofabsolutepovertymeasuredintermsofincomeorconsumption.Figure6.1displaysthesetwotrendsforthetwocountriesovertheperiodfrom11981to2001.Theheadcountratesofpovertyarecalculatedonascomparableabasisasiscurrentlyfeasiblewiththedataava

4、ilable.ThepovertylineistheWorldBank’sdollar-a-dayglobalstandardofabout$32.74permonthat1993PurchasingPowerParity.Chinastartedthisperiodwiththehigherpovertyrate,butsoonovertookIndia.However,concernsarebeingexpressedaboutthedistributionalimpactsofthegrowthprocessesinbothcountries.Thedomesticdebatea

5、boutgrowth-promotingreformshasbecomeincreasinglycontentious.Itiswidelyfeltthatthegainsfromgrowthhavebeenspreadtoounevenly,withsomesegmentsofthepopulationleftbehindinrelativeandevenabsoluteterms.Thisunevennesshasshownupasrisingincomeinequalitybyconventionalmeasuresinbothcountries.Thesedevelopment

6、sinturnhaveledsometoquestionthesustainabilityofgrowth.Whatisonetomakeofthis?Inwhatwayshasgrowthbeenuneven?Arethedatasuggestingrisinginequalitytobebelieved?Ifso,shouldthefactthatsegmentsofthepopulationappeartohavebeenleftbehind(atleastinrelativeterms)beofconcern?Anddoesthisposearisktothesustainab

7、ilityofgrowthandpovertyreduction?Thispapertriestoshedsomelightonthesequestions.Whileofundeniableinterestinbothcountries,thesequestionsalsomeritattentionelsewherebecausetheimpactthattheriseofChinaandIndiaisgoingtohaveontheres