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1、TheEuropeanJournalofComparativeEconomicsVol.4,n.1,pp.65-89ISSN1722-4667GrowthProspectsinChinaandIndiaCompared1RichardHerdandSeanDoughertyOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentAbstractThispapercomparesthegrowthprospectsofChinaandIndiathroughagrowthaccountingana
2、lysis.Consistenttimeseriesforcapitalstockandemploymentareconstructedusingavailablesurveydata,andrecentrevisionstothenationalaccountsforbothcountriesareincorporated.Theresultsallowforadiscussionofthesourcesofgrowthinbothcountries,andaconsiderationofeachcountry’srateofpote
3、ntialgrowthinlightoftheoutlookfornationalsavings,asdemographicshiftsoccurineachcountry.JELClassification:E20,O11,O47,P52Keywords:Growthaccounting;potentialgrowth;capitalmeasurement;demographics;China;India1.IntroductionChinaandIndia,asthefastest-growingofthe‘BRIC’economi
4、es,occupyaspecialplaceintheimaginationofobserversintheOECDandelsewhere.Despitetheirlowincomes,theirsheersizecombinedwithrapidgrowthmeansthattheymakeasubstantialandrapidlygrowingcontributiontoworldoutput.Thesuccessorfailureofeachcountrytomaintaintheirrapidgrowthintothefut
5、urewillhaveatremendousimpactnotonlyontheirowneconomiesbutontheworldeconomyasawhole.Moreover,withpopulationsof1.3and1.1billion,respectively,theirrapidgrowthhasthepotentialtoraiselivingstandardssignificantlyforathirdoftheworld’spopulation,bringinghundredsofmillionsofpeople
6、outofpovertyandcreatingamiddleclassthatrivalstheEUandUSinbothsizeandincome.Inbothcountries,growthhasacceleratedinrecentdecadesastradeliberalisationandmarket-orientedstructuralreformshavedeepened.Aglanceatbothcountries’experiencesuggestsanumberofsimilaritiesintheirreformp
7、aths.Despiteverydifferentpoliticalsystems,bothcountriesfollowedareformpaththatmarkedlyreducedtheroleofthegovernmentineconomicactivityandallowedagreaterdegreeofopennesstoforeigntrade.ReformstartedearlierinChinathaninIndia.Moreover,theopeningtotradehasproceededatamuchmorer
8、apidpaceinChina.Indeed,bythebeginningofthisdecade,Indiawasstilloneofthemosthighlyprotectedeconomiesinth
