德银-中国-教育行业-“二孩”政策惠及k12教育市场

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1、ChinaEducationDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina26January2018ChinaEducationConsumerHotels/Leisure/GamingIndustryUpdateTwo-childpolicybenefitsK12educationmarket;ExpertcallonJan29TallanZhouWhat'snew?NewbornsinChinashiftedtosecond-childin2017Res

2、earchAnalystNationalBureauofStatistics(NBS)recentlyreportedthatatotalof17.23mbabieswerebornin2017,aslightdecreaseof0.63moverthetotalin2016(17.86m+852-22036464newborns).Inaddition,therewere8.83msecond-childbirthsin2017,anincreaseToppicksof1.62mover2016.New

3、Oriental(EDU.N),USD101.69BuyTALEducation(TAL.N),USD28.99BuyDB'sview-Increasednewbornsin2016/17benefitK12educationmarketintheSource:DeutscheBanklongtermAlthoughtherewasaslightyoydropofnewbornsandbirthrate,thesetwoCompaniesfeaturednumbersin2017recordedthesec

4、ondhighestsince2003.Afterthetwo-childNewOriental(EDU.N),USD101.69Buypolicystartedtotakeeffectin2016,newborngrowthwasmainlydrivenbythe2017A2018E2019Esecond-childbirths.MorethanhalfofChinesenewborns(51.2%)in2017areP/E(x)26.339.829.3secondchildren(vs.c.40%in2

5、016).WebelievetheincrementalnewbornsofEV/EBITDA(x)17.033.122.71-2min2016/17willsoon(inthenext3-5years)becometheconsumptionpowerPrice/book(x)6.77.05.7ofthepre-schoolandyoungchildren’seducationmarket.TALEducation(TAL.N),USD28.99Buy2017A2018E2019EIndustryspe

6、cialistconferencecallonChinaK12Education;MondayJan29,P/E(x)36.867.946.110:30amHKTEV/EBITDA(x)28.157.534.3WewillhostaconferencecallwithaspecialistinK12TutoringinChina,Mr.Price/book(x)10.416.111.6WentaoZhu(RegionalSchoolMasterofHefeiOnlymidEducation)Source:

7、DeutscheBank■ChinaEducationUpdate-K12TutoringExpansionandPenetrationinChina;MondayJan29,10:30amHKT■When:29Jan2018,Monday*GroupConferenceCall(MandarinOnly)@10:30HKT/02:30LONtime/21:30(28thJan)NYtimeDeutscheBankAG/HongKongDistributedon:26/01/201811:09:07GMT

8、DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportas