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1、GSAMQUARTERLYINVESTMENTOUTLOOK
2、3Q2017WillitLast?MACRO&MARKETVIEWS2-5ALSOINTHISEDITIONTimeForDynamism,NotLongTermDe-risking6Willitlast?Intermsoftheeconomicbackdrop,wethinktheanswerisWebelieveitistooearlytode-riskportfoliosfortheendofthecycle,butwethinkyes.Theglobaleconomicex
3、pansionappearslikelytocontinuefordynamismcanaddvalueandhaveloweredriskexposuresonamoretacticalbasis.anothercoupleofyears.Infinancialmarkets,wethinktheanswerisThePhillipsCurveball7WeseetheweaknessinUSinflationastemporary,andexpectinflationtoriseaslabormorenuanced(page2).mark
4、etstighten.However,weacknowledgethatthetimingoftheturnisuncertain.QuantitativeExit8Wedonotseealargeimpactfromthewind-downofcentralbankassetpurchasesbuttheglobalflowisslowing,andlackofprecedenceisasourceofuncertainty.BottomLine9-10Wepreferequitiesovercreditandcreditoverrates
5、(page5).Weseerelativevalueopportunitiesingovernmentbonds,withCanadavs.USbeingoneexample.Inequitiesweareparticularlypositiveonemergingmarkets(EM)andEurope.WILLITLAST?GSAMQUARTERLY
6、3Q2017WillitLast?onfuturewagegrowth.Importantly,theseheadwindsarealltemporaryandwethinkMacrotre
7、ndshavebeenstablethisyearintermsofrisinggrowthinflationwillfirmatsomepointinthesecondhalfoftheyear.expectations,decliningpoliticaluncertaintyandEMoutperformingPoliticalriskstoremainmuteddevelopedmarkets(DM).Morerecently,inflationexpectationsandthePoliticaluncertaintyhasdecl
8、inedstronglyinthefirsthalfoftheyear.TheFrenchso-called“Trumptrades”haveconsistentlydeflated.Willitlast?PresidentialelectionresultandthedeclininglikelihoodofelectionsinItalybeforenextyearhaveloweredrisksinEuropeconsiderably.IntheUS,marketexpectationsforgrowth-friendlypolicyc
9、hangesbyPresidentTrumphavebecomemorerealisticastheThewideningoutoftheexpansionisinlinewithourviews…politicalandeconomicconstraintshavebecomeclearer(Exhibit3).WeexpectpoliticalOneofourkeythemesfortheyearhasbeenthattheexpansionwouldcontinueandriskstobelessofadriverofmarketsin
10、thesecondhalf.Ifanything,weseesomewidenouttoabroadersetofcountriesthanatanypointsi