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1、DeutscheBankResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsDateSouthAfricaForeignExchange7February2018FXSpotFXVolatilityGautamKalani,Ph.D.StrategistEMFX(+44)20754-57066gautam.kalani@db.comZARWars:FundamentalsstrikebackElinaRibakovaChiefEconomist(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comInthisreport,wed
2、iscussourbullishviewonZAR,arguingthatthereactionaryrallyaroundtheANCelectionoutcomecantransitionintoamoregradual,butDaneleeMasiasustained,appreciationbasedonfundamentalgreenshots,particularlyontheEconomistgrowth,inflationandcurrentaccountfronts.(+27)11775-7267danelee.masia@db.comRat
3、ionale:WebelievetheZARrallyhastwophases.ThefirstphasewasthereactionarysharpappreciationaroundtheANCelectioninmid-December,asinvestorsentimentimprovedonthebackofCyrilRamaphosa’selectionasANCPresident.Mostofthisphaseofappreciation–thereactiontotheANCelectionoutcome–islikelycomplete.Ho
4、wever,inourview,thesecondphaseofmoregradual,butsustained,appreciationstillhasroomtorun.Asthepoliticalpicturecontinuesimproving(evenifgradually),thefocuswillturntofundamentalsasthemarginaldriverofZAR.AndwebelievetherearefundamentalgreenshootsthatshoulddrivethissecondphaseofZARappreci
5、ation.Theseincludethepotentialforbusinessconfidencetoimproveandinvestmentstoaccelerate(withgrowthsurprisingtotheupsideversusmutedexpectations),continueddisinflationwithprudentcentralbankpolicy(leadingtohighrealrates)andsharpimprovementsinthetradebalanceandcurrentaccount.Thebudgetann
6、ouncementon21stFebruarywillbecrucial,butwebelievethereisahighchanceofapositivesurpriseversusverylowexpectations(aftertheconcerningOctoberbudgetannouncement).Ifthereisanysemblanceofreturntothefiscalconsolidationpath,itwouldgoalongwayinhelpingavoidaratingsdowngrade(Moody’sreviewon23rd
7、March).Lastly,ZARvaluationsarenotstretchedinourviewandareunlikelytobeadeterrenttofurtherappreciationonotherpositivefactors.Wedorecognize,however,thattherecentZARrallyhasbeensharp,andhencewerecommendtrailingstopstolockinprofits,orexpressingtheviewvialimitedlossoptionsstructures.Trade
8、history:Wehavehelda
