德银-新兴市场-外汇市场-新兴市场外汇：美国与加拿大市场要点-混合观战

《德银-新兴市场-外汇市场-新兴市场外汇：美国与加拿大市场要点-混合观战》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、DeutscheBankResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsDateForeignExchange25October2017FXSpotGautamKalani,PhDStrategistEMFX(+44)20754-57066gautam.kalani@db.comUSandCanadamarketingtriptakeaways:MixedviewsWejustcompletedaweekofEMandEMEAFXmarketinginNewYork,Boston,TorontoandMontrealtoamixofrealmoney,pensionfunda

2、ndhedgefundaccounts.Inthisnotewepresentourkeytakeaways,alongwiththemostdiscussedcharts.LackofconsensusontheEMFXoutlook–dichotomybetweenrealmoneyandfastmoneyaccountsWehavebeenbroadlyconstructiveonEMFXallthroughtheyear,onthebackofthefollowingfactors:1)scopeforEMinflowstocontinue(Figures1and2);2)EMFXv

3、aluationsarestillattractive(Figures3-6);3)GlobalgrowthisrobustandtheEM-DMgrowthdifferentialiswideningagainafterdecliningoverthepastfewyears(Figure7);4)EMmacroandexternalfinancingvulnerabilitieshavereducedsince2013(Figures8-10).WebelievethisthesisofEMFXappreciationstillhasroomtoplayoutoverthemediumt

4、erm,thoughtheuncertaintyaroundFedchairselectionandrenewedexpectationsforUStaxreformhavecloudedtheneartermoutlookforEMFX.Wefoundthatrealmoneyandpensionfundclientsweregenerallyinagreementwiththisview,andwerestillincreasingallocationstoEMFXandEMlocalmarketsmorebroadly.AllocationstoEMhavebouncedfromthe

5、lowsbutarestillbelowthepeaksandeventhehistoricalaverages,highlightingscopeforstructuralinflowstoEMtocontinue.WealsobelievetheseinflowshavebeentheprimaryreasonthatdipsinEMFXhavebeenrelativelyshort-livedthisyear.However,themacroandhedgefundcommunityhadmuchmoremixedviews.Whilesomeclientswereinour‘sele

6、ctivelyconstructive’camp,othersweremuchmoreconcernedontheprospectsofEMandEMFX,andpushedbackonourviews.Thepushbackwasnotsomuchon‘intrinsic’EMfactors(e.g.reducedvulnerability),butmoreontheexternalenvironmentinthenearterm–specifically,thepotentialforasubstantialriseinUSratesonthebackofTaylorpossiblybe

7、ingappointedastheFedchair,alargeunfundedfiscalstimulusandthecombinationofFedbalancesheetnormalizationandECBtapering.WethusgaugedthattherewaslimitedpositioninginEMFXbythefastmoneycommunity;positioningcleared