巴黎银行-匈牙利宏观经济-hungary economic outlook-20170714-bnpparibas

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1、HungaryEconomicoutlookMichalDybula,ChiefEconomistCentral&EasternEuropeRafalStaroscik,JuniorEconomistBankBGŻBNPParibasSAJuly2017Summary:GoodwhileitlastsWearerevisingupourHungarianGDPgrowthforecastfor2017to3.5%from2.3%,mainlyonthebackofunexpectedlystronggrowthintheeurozone.Buoya

2、ntabove-trendGDPgrowthintheshorttermisunlikelytobesustainedinthefollowingyears,however,owingtoHungary’scyclicalpositionandgrowingcapacityconstraints.Weseetheeconomyexpandingby2.5%in2018(revisedfrom2.2%)and2.0%in2019.Afterplummetingbynearly15%,investmentoutlaysshouldrecoverthisy

3、ear,risingbyalmost20%thankstoanEU-fundedbounce-backincapitalspending.PrivateconsumptionshouldalsocontributemuchtoGDPgrowththisyear.Weexpectfiscalpolicytobeloosenedin2017-18andlookforanotherroundofVAT-ratecutsnextyear.Nevertheless,thebudgetdeficitshouldremainsafelybelowtheEU-man

4、datedthresholdof3%ofGDPuntil2019.DespitethedisinflationaryimpactofVATtaxcuts,weexpectCPIinflationtoaverage2.3%in2017and2.7%in2018.Weseeastrongcaseforhigherconsumer-pricegrowthdowntheline.Briskwagegrowthislikelytoseecoreinflationtopping3%y/yalreadyinlate2017.Althoughheadlinein

5、flationshouldtouchthepolicymakers’3%targetnextyear,weexpecttheNationalBankofHungary(NBH)tofocusonkeepingtheforintweakandnottotightenthepolicystance.TheNBHwillacceptdeeplynegativerealrates,wethink,ashelpingtofendoffHUFappreciationpressurestemmingfromsurplusesonthecurrentandcapit

6、alaccounts.Nevertheless,anegativeterms-of-tradeshockrelatedtoaspikeincommoditypricesislikelytonarrowthecurrent-accountsurplustoabout3%ofGDPin2017-19,from5.6%lastyear.Aswiftriseinunitlabourcostscouldalsobecomeariskfortheforint.BNPParibasstrategistsexpectEURHUFtotradeat312bythe

7、endof2017andat320inlate2018.14July20172Hungary:Dataandforecasts201520162017(1)2018(1)2019(1)ComponentsofgrowthGDP3.21.93.52.52.0Privateconsumption3.14.23.13.92.5Fixedinvestment1.1-14.819.80.81.0Exports7.75.89.07.25.9Imports6.15.811.18.06.3Inflation&labourCPI-0.10.42.32.72.3Emplo

8、yment2.73.41.50.70.3Nominalwages4.36.211.08.65.