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1、EquityResearch6November2017NorthAmericaTransportationINDUSTRYUPDATEKeyThemesfrom3Q17EarningsNorthAmericaTransportationPOSITIVEIthastakenawhiletogethere(namelyforUNPshares),buttransportequitieshaveUnchangedgenerallyenjoyedasolid2017,withsharepricessupportinghighabsolutevaluationsbuttressed
2、byastrongeconomicbackdrop.WhilerelativevaluationlevelsForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandformostlargecaptransportscomparedtoamoreexpensivemarketkeepsusearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseeencouraged,wesurmisemanyinvestorshavenowdiscountedastrongcyclicaltableonpage2.backdrop,drivingour
3、focusonnamespotentiallybenefitingfromstructuralgains.OurfocuswouldincludeCSXfortherailsasanewmanagementteamislikelytoshowNorthAmericaTransportationprogressinreducingcosts;onthepackageside,FedExremainsourrecommendationBrandonR.Oglenskigivenasolidinternationaltradebackdropandtighteninggloba
4、lcapacity;andlastlyon+12125268903thesmallcapside,XPOislikelytobenefitfromfutureM&Aandimprovinginvestorbrandon.oglenski@barclays.comBCI,USperceptionofthecompany’slong-termpotential.Onthenegativeside,wehadpreviouslymodeledfuelcoststoolowgiventherecentspikeinoilandrefiningpricesVanKegelfollo
5、wingthisfall’sactivestormseason.Further,wearealsoimplementingpension+12125265019accountingchangesfor2018,whichhastheimpactofopticallylowermarginsforthevan.kegel@barclays.comCanadianrails,CNandCP,butshouldhavenoimpactonnetincome.BCI,USMatthewWisniewskiForFDXandUPS,weareencouragedatrecentin
6、ternationalresultsandUPS’+12125265143conservativemanagementteam’swillingnesstoinvest.Whilemanyinvestorswillmatthew.wisniewski@barclays.comfocusonfreecashflowconversionforFedEx(andincreasinglyUPSgivenhighercapitalBCI,USspending),weareremindedofthetremendousglobalpackagegrowthopportunityfro
7、mincreasedecommercedemand.Nonetheless,UPSDomesticUSsegmentmarginsMatthewPreston+12125265752remainunderpressure,whichwehopewillleadmanagementtogetmoreaggressivematthew.preston@barclays.comonpricing,especiallyinthecurrentstrongeconomicenvironment.BCI,USForrails,inflat