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1、EquityResearch5February2018NorthAmericaTransportationINDUSTRYUPDATEKeyThemesfrom4Q17EarningsNorthAmericaTransportationPOSITIVETransportsstarted2018onastrongnote,butmuchoftherallyhasdissipatedUnchangedthrough4Qearnings.Nonetheless,wefindresultsindicati
2、veofastrongeconomyandUStaxreformisdrivingrecordcashconversion(forrails).LargecaptransportForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandvaluationsaretradingatorbelowthemarketinacyclicallyfavorableperiod;andonearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseethesmallcapsid
3、e,Knightresultssuggestwewerepreviouslytoobearishontruckingtableonpage2.fundamentals,drivingtoday’supgrade.Yes,wearebullish.Whiletransportationdemandismostlyconcurrentwitheconomicoutcomes,hencelimitedfuturepredictiveNorthAmericaTransportationvalue,weex
4、pectincreasedconsumerspendingdrivenbystrongemploymentandwageBrandonR.OglenskiinflationislikelytoaddtoanalreadybullishUSeconomy.Further,increasedcorporate+12125268903cashflowandcapitalreinvestment(seeUPSlastweek)drivenbyUStaxreformislikelybrandon.oglen
5、ski@barclays.comBCI,UStoaddmomentuminanalreadystrongindustrialbackdrop.Exitingearnings,wesuspectconsensusremainstoolowonrevenueopportunitiesin2018,especiallyforVanKegelrailroadequities.+12125265019van.kegel@barclays.comFortherails,cashflowmetricsarein
6、creasinglyattractiveandseemsomewhatBCI,USoverlooked.TaxreductionandearningsexpansionisdrivingcashyieldstoattractiveMatthewWisniewski,CPA5%levelsonaverageacrossthegroup(comparedto3.5%5-yearaverage),a+12125265143phenomenonwethinkhasyettobefullyreflected
7、inconsensusnumbers.Specifictomatthew.wisniewski@barclays.comrails,capitaldisciplineacrosstheindustry(withtheexceptionofCNinvestingforBCI,USgrowth)alongwithfavorableworkingcapitaldynamicsisdrivingcashconversiontoall-timehighlevels,whichappearsustainabl
8、eforatleastthenextseveralyears.MatthewPreston+12125265752UPSissurpassingFedExinrevenueexpansionandCapexspendingforthefirsttimematthew.preston@barclays.cominoveradecade;butwesuspectFedExwillincreasespendingoutlooknextmonth.BCI,USWhilethemarketw
