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1、CORENorthAmericaTransportationDeepDiveon2019RailOutlookINDUSTRYUPDATEEquityResearch13November2018Werealizethevisibleheadwindsmaybemoreacuteheadinginto2019,buttightcapacity,higherpricingandstillfavorableNorthAmericanindustrialfundamentalsalongwithquiteattractivefreecashflowyie
2、ldssupportourconvictioninstockssuchasCSX,CanadianPacificandUnionPacific.Aswebreakdownourrailroadearningsandvolumeexpectationsforthenexttwelvemonths,weforecast2019couldbeanotheryearofdouble-digitEPSgrowthsupportedbyhealthyvolumeandpricinggains.However,asisalwaysthecase,theoutloo
3、kintonextyearisabitlesscertain.TradechallengesrankhighestamongstmacroconcernswhichhavealsosupportedastrongerUSdollarandthusreducedUSexports.Further,inflationarypressuresalongwithslowerautomotiveandcoalmarketscoulddrivechallengesforrailcarriersin2019.Nonetheless,strengthinenergy
4、,industrialandconsumermarketsshouldlikelybeenoughtokeepindustryvolumeinexpansionterritoryin2019,whichhistoricallyhascreatedafavorableenvironmentforoperatingefficiencyandmarginexpansion.WearecloselywatchingthetradedisputebetweentheUSandChina,butsofarglobalsupplychainsappeartobea
5、bsorbingslowerChineseexports,keepingtheUSwellinexpansionterritoryandwithlowrelativeinventorylevelsdespiterecentevidenceoftrade‘pullforward’.Macrofundamentalshaveslowedsomeinrecentmonthsandtraderelatedconcernshavegrown,butweremainoptimisticthat2019willprovetobeanotheryearofsuppo
6、rtiveraildemand.GlobaltradeactivityhasbeendeceleratingasbroaddatafromEuropehasweakenedandrecentdatafromAsiaislessencouraging;butUSdomesticdemandcontinuestoappearrobust(pleasesee‘ASoT,Oct.’–published22Oct2018formoredetails).AndwhileelevatedtradetensionsbetweenChinaandtheUSarecon
7、cerning,ourrecentanalysissuggestsfearsmaybeoverdoneassupplychainsareprovingtobefungibleanddemandforimportsremainspositive(pleasesee‘GlobalTradeUpdate’published06Nov18forfurtherdetails).Top-downandbottom-upanalysesindicatevolumegrowthcouldbearound2-3%nextyear;slightlylowerthan20
8、18,butstillahealthyoutcome.Merchandiseandintermodaltra
