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1、EquityResearch16June2017Internet&MediaINDUSTRYUPDATEDisney:Déjàvuagain?U.S.Cable&SatelliteCommunicationsPOSITIVEDisney:LastFriday,DisneyfiledaForm4indicatingasignificantamountofstocksaleUnchangedbyDisneyCEOBobIger.Mr.Igersoldroughly$69mmworthofsharesand~44%ofhisDisneyholding
2、.WenotethatMr.IgerhadalsosoldameaningfulamountofDisneyU.S.MediasharesinMay2015(~$22mm),priortoDisney’sAugust2015guidancerevision.WhileNEUTRALtheremaynotalwaysbeacorrelationbetweenstocksalebymanagementandUnchangedfundamentals,wedonotethatthecompanycutconsumerproductsOIgrowthg
3、uidancefortheyear(expecteddownvs.FYQ4guidanceofpositive2017OIgrowth).U.S.Cable&SatelliteCommunicationsToysRUsCEOindicatedyesterdaythatStarWars(Episode8inDecember)toysalesareU.S.Media“soft”.Also,reviewsofCars3(release:June16;expected$55-65mmopeningasperKannanVenkateshwartrade
4、press),anothermajorconsumerproductsfranchise,seemlukewarm(64%on+12125287054RottenTomatoes),althoughbetterthanCars2.Disney’sNielsenratings,down~15%kannan.venkateshwar@barclays.comforthequarterthusfar,areamongtheweakestacrossmedia.AlsowenotethatMagnaBCI,USGlobalnewestUSforecas
5、trevisednetworkcableadrevenuesfurtherdowntoflatforShelleyYangtheyear,thelowestgrowthsincetherecessionin2009.Aswe’venotedpreviously,we+12125260416expectcablenetworkstoseeseculardeclinesoverthecomingyears,whichisnotyetshelley.yang@barclays.comreflectedinagencyestimates(pleases
6、ee:TelevisionAdvertising:Upfrontsandbeyond,BCI,US7/8/16).Overall,whileDisneyhasasetofpotentiallypositivecatalystslaterthisyearandin2018(affiliaterenewals,movieslate,newparkattractions,costcuts,etc.),itisDivyaunshDivatiatoughtohaveaconstructiveviewofthestock,giventhesedatapoi
7、nts.+12125269947divyaunsh.divatia@barclays.comLocalbroadcasters:WiththeDCCircuitcourtvoidingthestayontheUHFdiscountBCI,USyesterday,localbroadcasterscannowtakethenextstepintryingtoconsummatedeals.However,thepathtocompletingthesedealsislikelytobequitecomplicatedaswehavepointed
8、out(pleasesee:Broadcastmergersbecomeeasierbutpathcouldbemessy,4/20/17).Beyo
