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1、EquityResearch2August2017U.S.Cable&MediaINDUSTRYUPDATEModelUpdatesU.S.Cable&SatelliteCommunicationsPOSITIVECharterstrategicprioritiesunlikelytobeconstantgivenpresentvaluation:WithUnchangedCHTRstockapproaching$400largelyonaccountofpersistentM&Aspeculation(initiallyVZa
2、ndnowSoftbank)andbuybacks,webelieveirrespectiveofitspriorU.S.Mediastrategicgoalposts,thecompanymayhavetoconsiderwaystomonetizeitsvaluationNEUTRALpremiumatpresentlevels.At~$400,thecompany’sbuybackswillhaveamuchmoreUnchangedlimitedimpactonthestock.Also,adjustedfortimev
3、alueandexecutionrisk,Charterisalreadyclosetolevelsthatwouldhavedefinedoptimisticscenariosjustayearago.Forafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseeDish-Sprinthookupunlikely:RecentnewsflowalsoindicatesthatSprintmaybetableonpage2.explorin
4、gadealwithDishasanalternativetoCharter(Pleasesee:DishNetworkbecomeslatesttelecomstocktospikeonreportSoftBankmaybuyit,CNBC,8/1/17)U.S.Cable&SatelliteCommunicationsSprintisalreadysittingonroughly200MHzspectrum,anditappearsbulkofwhatKannanVenkateshwarSoftbankwillpayapre
5、miumforinDishwillbeforspectrum.SoineffectSoftbankwill+12125287054havetopayapremiumforanassetthatmaynotbemonetizableinthenearfuture.kannan.venkateshwar@barclays.comCouldthejointentityselloffpartofthatspectrumtootherusers,orprovidecapacityonBCI,USawholesalebusiness(aki
6、ntoastrategywediscussedforDISH’sspectrumholdingsinthepast)?Perhaps.However,thequestionremainswhySoftBankwouldbewillingtoDivyaunshDivatiapayapremiuminordertodoso.+12125269947divyaunsh.divatia@barclays.comWhatistherightmultipleforCharter?Charterstockhasmovedfrom~$300to
7、~$400BCI,USlargelydrivenbyM&Aspeculationandthecompany’slargescalebuybacks.GiventhatShelleyYangM&Aspeculationisdifficulttodisprove,webelievemultiplesatCharterwilllikelyhavea+12125260416higherfloorthanothercablecompanies.Inordertodeterminewhattheappropriateshelley.yang
8、@barclays.commultipleis,weusea‘core’multipleequaltoourexpectedEBITDACAGRoverthenextBCI,USthreeyears(8.5x),whichgivesusacorepricetar
