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1、EquityResearch1February2018U.S.Cable&SatelliteCommunicationsINDUSTRYUPDATESIRI:Timestheyarea-changin’U.S.Cable&SatelliteCommunicationsNEUTRALStorystartingtoshift:SIRIisbeenoneofthecleanestandmostvisibleexecutionUnchangedstoriesacrossallofmediawithequityperformanc
2、efurthersupportedbysubstantialnormalizedcapitalreturns.However,aswehavehighlightedoverthecourseof2017,Forafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandwhiletheexecutionstoryisstillintact,thebusinessisalotmoremature.Comparedtoearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseesubscribern
3、etaddsof1.4-1.6mmselfpaysubseachyearoverthelast5years,wetableonpage2.expectthecompanytonowadd1-1.1mmnextyearandbeyond.Also,webelievethebulkofthecompany’smarginexpansionstoryisnowbehindus.WeforecasttheU.S.Cable&SatelliteCommunicationscompany’sFCFgrowthratetodropfr
4、omahigh-teensCAGRoverthelast5yearstolowKannanVenkateshwarsingle-digitsbetween2017-20asthecompany’sNOLsrunout,despitethebenefitof+12125287054lowertaxrates.Anothervariablethathassupportedthestockoverthelastfewyearskannan.venkateshwar@barclays.comhasbeenthecompany’s
5、aggressivepaceofbuybacks.However,withonly~$8bnofBCI,USnonLibertyownedfloatnowavailabletobuyagainstacapacityof~$2bnannuallyonaDivyaunshDivatialeveredbasis,buybackswillalsobetoughertoexecuteonthesamescale.Thishas+12125269947beenevidentoverthelast3yearswithbuybacksf
6、allingfrom$2.5Bto~$1.4Boverthedivyaunsh.divatia@barclays.comperiod.BCI,USValuation:SIRI(18.2x2018Eand16.5x2019EP/FCF)isoneofthemostexpensiveShelleyYangstockacrossourcoverageuniversewithonlyFormulaOne(22x2018E/FCF)and+12125260416Charter(24.5x2018EP/FCF),bothlevere
7、dJohnMaloneentitiessimilartoSIRI,tradingshelley.yang@barclays.comatahighermultiple.WhileweexpectFCFgrowthof16%and27%atFWONKandBCI,USCHTRbetween2018-2020,SIRI’sFCFgrowthislikelytodropto~6%.WhileallthreecompaniesbenefitfromhighEBITDAtoFCFconversions,SIRI’staxadvant
8、ageislikelytorunoutin2019.Also,CHTRhasanembeddedtakeoutstory,whileSIRI’spremiummaycomeintoquestioniftheholdingstructurewithLSXMAcollapsesatsomepointwhichwilldi
