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1、EquityResearch4December2017U.S.Cable&SatelliteCommunicationsINDUSTRYUPDATEDowngradeCabletoNeutralandU.S.Cable&SatelliteCommunicationsChartertoUWNEUTRALfromPositiveDowngradeCabletoNeutral:Foroverfouryears,ourpositiveviewonUScablehasForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandbeenbackedupbyvideomarketshare
2、gainvsDBS(satellite),growthinbroadbandearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseesubsandM&A.ThishasresultedinComcastandCharteroutperformingtheSPXbytableonpage2.52%since2013.Lookinginto2018andbeyondhowever,webelievethecablestoryislikelytofaceincreasingheadwindsonaccountofgrowingcompetitivepressureinU.S.Cab
3、le&SatelliteCommunicationsvideo,slowdowninbroadbandgrowth,leveredbalancesheets,M&ApermutationsKannanVenkateshwarbecomingmoreuncertainintermsofpayoffs,optimisticestimatesandvaluation.Over+12125287054thecourseof2017,wehavereflectedmanyoftheseconcernsbytakingComcastoutofkannan.venkateshwar@barclays.com
4、ourTopPickslist,reducingestimates,multiplesandpricetargets.However,webelieveBCI,USthegrowinglackofvisibilitycouldresultinfurtherdownsidesurprisesinthecomingDivyaunshDivatiaquarters.Consequently,wedowngradetheU.S.Cable&SatelliteCommunications+12125269947industrytoNeutral.divyaunsh.divatia@barclays.co
5、mBCI,USDowngradeChartertoUW:.Overthelastcoupleofyears,thebullcaseinCharterhasShelleyYangbeenlargelypredicatedonoutyeargrowthexpectations,buybacksandpotentialM&A.+12125260416Thisassumesastaticcompetitiveenvironmentwhich,asitisincreasinglyevident,isshelley.yang@barclays.comlikelytobeamisplacedassumpti
6、on.WenotethatdespitethecompanybenefittingBCI,USfrom~$1bninsynergies,Charter’sforwardestimateshavecomedownconsistentlyoverthecourseofthelastyear.Infact,relativetothecompany’sownestimatefor2017EBITDAinitsproxy,weestimate2017EBITDAislikelytocomein~$675mmshort.Thisgapislikelytogrowinouteryearsasthedegre
7、eofoperatingleveragebeingattributedtoChartercouldbedifficulttoachievegivendoubledigitprogrammingcostgrowth,wirelesslaunchcostsandreluctancetoraisebroadbandprices.Incrementally,Charter’scapitalintensit
