巴克莱-美股-有线和卫星通信行业-ott视频，是最好的时代，也是最坏的时代-2017.724-internet and media ott video the best of times, the worst of times ...

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1、EquityResearch24July2017INDUSTRYUPDATEInternetandMediaU.S.Cable&SatelliteCommunicationsOTTVideo:thebestoftimes,thePOSITIVEUnchangedworstoftimes…U.S.InternetPOSITIVEWhatisthefutureofvideo?IsitSnapchatDiscover?CoulditbewhatweseeinNorway,Unchangedwhere25

2、%ofthepopulationtunesinto“Skam”distributedonFacebook?IsNetflixbingedoverComcast’sX1Platform?CanlegacymediacompeteforthebestshowsU.S.Mediawhenviewershipismeasuredinhundredsofmillionsbyinternetmajorsvs10-20mmatNEUTRALbestbylegacymedia.Whiletheendstatewi

3、lltaketimetoestablishitself,thedisruptionUnchangedweareseeinginlineartelevisionandcordcuttinginrecentyearsisstillintheearlystages.U.S.Cable&SatelliteCommunicationsU.S.MediaCordcuttingtogetalotworse:WelikelyjustfinishedaquarterwithoneofthehighestKannan

4、VenkateshwarpayTVsublossesinthehistoryoftheindustry.However,webelievethisprocessisfar+12125287054fromdone.Webelievetherecouldbeabaseof31mmhomesthatcouldcutorshavekannan.venkateshwar@barclays.comthecordoverthenextdecade,withsomenetworksdecliningataneve

5、nfasterpace.BCI,USWhileouranalysisindicatesinternetdeliveredbundlescouldgain~17mmsubscribersoverthisperiod,mediacompaniescouldseea~$13bnlossinaffiliatefeesoverthisDivyaunshDivatia+12125269947period.Thisisinessencethepotentialcostoffragmentation.divyau

6、nsh.divatia@barclays.comWhataremediacompaniesmissing?Inouropinion,mediacompaniesarelookingatBCI,USallformsofdistributionfromthesamenarrowlensofaffiliatefees.However,thereareShelleyYangsignificantdifferencesinemergingOTTbusinessmodelsandincentivesforne

7、w+12125260416entrantsvslegacydistribution.Thesedifferencesaredrivenbythefollowingfactors(1)shelley.yang@barclays.commediumshapesthemessageanditsconsumption(2)qualityisbecominglessBCI,USimportantthancontext(3)Shiftsinconsumerinertiabecomingfrictionless

8、(4)TVisnotabouttheTelevisionscreenanymore.U.S.InternetRossSandlerSowhatshouldmediacompaniesdo?AdynamicplatformlikeYouTubeTVoffers+14152634470muchgreaterpotentialfordistributionandconsumptionthanastaticcablesettopboxross.sandler@barclays.combas