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1、EquityResearch25August2017U.S.Cable&MediaINDUSTRYUPDATEMediaMusterU.S.Cable&SatelliteCommunicationsPOSITIVEWhatistherightmultipleforAMC?WepublishanupdatedmodelforAMCincludingUnchangeditspro-formanumbers.Wehavereducedourpricetargetto$16basedonoverallmultiplesof~7xEV/EBITDA2018estimates,
2、whichimplies~6.5xfordomesticand8.5xForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandforinternationalbasedon:(a)overthelast5yearsdomesticboxofficegrowthhasearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseebeen~2%andlegacyAMChadaroughly1:2revenuetoEBITDAgrowthrateratio.tableonpage2.Therefore,normalizingacrosss
3、lates,thegrowthprofileofthecompanyisatbestinthemidsingledigitsdomestically;(b)normalizedmultiplesatbenchmarkswithsimilarbutU.S.Cable&SatelliteCommunicationsmorevisiblegrowthprofileslikecabledistributorspriortotheM&AcyclewereattheU.S.Mediamost6-7x.WenotethatComcast’scablebusinesseventod
4、ayimplicitlytradesataKannanVenkateshwarmultipleof7.75x(using9.5xforNBCU);(c)AMCfacesmultiplesourcesofuncertainty+12125287054someofwhichliketheriskfromPVOD(pleasesee:AMC:PVODheadlineaddstobadkannan.venkateshwar@barclays.comnewsdeluge,August18,2017)aresectorwidewhileotherslikeexposuretoW
5、andaBCI,USandexecutionriskarounditsmultipleacquisitionsismoreidiosyncratic.BasedontheseDivyaunshDivatiafactors,webelieveAMCshouldtradeatadiscounttootherswithsimilargrowthrates.+12125269947Wenotethatpeersinthetheatricalspacearetradingat~6.75xatpresent.divyaunsh.divatia@barclays.comBCI,U
6、SSportsdigitalstreamingcontinuestogainpace:TencentwillbetheexclusivelivestreamingpartnerinChinaforNFLgamesfrom2017-19andwillairliveandon-ShelleyYangdemandallThursday,Sunday,andMondayNightFootballgames,theplayoffs,andthe+12125260416SuperBowl,etc.Thegameswillbeavailablethroughonbothmobil
7、eanddesktops.Theshelley.yang@barclays.comBCI,UScombinedMAUofTencent’splatforms,WeixinandWeChat,isover960mm.WithAmazonandFacebookgettingactiveinacquiringmainstreamsportsrightsglobally,alongwithlocalplayerslikeTencent,sportsisseeingthesamefragmentationasotherformsofcontent.Thiscycle,ho
