j.p. 摩根-全球存储器市场：好得令人难以置信-20170824-jpmorgan-global memory market too good to be true what s next after the longest-lasting and historically high asp hike

《j.p. 摩根-全球存储器市场：好得令人难以置信-20170824-jpmorgan-global memory market too good to be true what s next after the longest-lasting and historically high asp hike》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、Completed24Aug201704:01PMHKTDisseminated24Aug201704:02PMHKTAsiaPacificEquityResearch24August2017ClientsshouldcontactrepresentativesandexecutetransactionsthroughaJ.P.Morgansubsidiaryoraffiliateintheirhomejurisdictionunlessgoverninglawpermitsotherwise.GlobalMe

2、moryMarketToogoodtobetrue;what'snextafterthelongest-lastingandhistoricallyhighASPhike?WithchangesinourmajorassumptionsaswellasrecentmemorypricetrendsandTechnology-Semiconductorscommentaryfrommemorymakerspost2Q17results,weareupdatingourglobalACmemorymodelandi

3、ntroducing2019estimations.WenowexpectthetotalJJParkmemorymarkettogrow63%yoyin2017,followedbyamoderatedecline(~1%)(82-2)758-5717in2018and8%declinein2019.Theupwardrevisionstoourpreviousestimationsjj.park@jpmorgan.comaremainlyattributabletohighermemorypricesdri

4、venbysupplyissuesratherBloombergJPMAPARKthandemandrecovery.J.P.MorganSecurities(FarEast)Limited,SeoulBranchDRAM:What’snextafterthelongest-lastingandhistoricallyhighpriceincrease?WeexpecttheDRAMmarkettogrowby~70%yoyin2017,HarlanSurreaching~US$70bnthankst

5、oa40%+ASPhikewhichisthehighestlevelasfar(1-415)315-6700asweremember.ThegrowthinthetotalDRAMmarketsizeisalsoatitsharlan.sur@jpmorgan.comhighestsince2010(postGFC),mainlyowingtostrongDRAMprices.IntermsJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCofmonthlytrends,thecurrentupwardtrend

6、sinceearly2016isthelongestHisashiMoriyamaalongwiththehighestpriceincreases.(81-3)6736-8601DRAMpricetraditionallyupordown,nostabilization:Factoringinrecenthisashi.moriyama@jpmorgan.comcommentaryfrommajorDRAMplayersandS-Ddynamics,wenowexpectaJPMorganSecuritie

7、sJapanCo.,Ltd.blendedDRAMASPtogoupbyamid-singledigit%qoqin3Q17followedbyRodHall,CFAamoderatedeclinein4Q17.OnceDRAMpricesbegintodecline,however,the(1-415)315-6713pricecorrectionwouldbehigherthanthatexpectedbythemarketdrivenbytherod.b.hall@jpmorgan.comfactthat

8、DRAMpriceshavebeensignificantlyincreasingformorethanayearJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCnow.Hence,weforecastblendedDRAMpricestodeclinebyadouble-digit%BillPetersonin1Q/2Q18andahigherpricedeclinein2019asa