全球存储器市场：好得令人难以置信

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1、GlobalMemoryMarketToogoodtobetrue;what'snextafterthelongest-lastingandhistoricallyhighASPhike?Withchangesinourmajorassumptionsaswellasrecentmemorypricetrendsandcommentaryfrommemorymakerspost2Q17results,weareupdatingourglobalmemorymodelandintroducing2019estimations.Wenowexpec

2、tthetotalmemorymarkettogrow63%yoyin2017,followedbyamoderatedecline(~1%)in2018and8%declinein2019.Theupwardrevisionstoourpreviousestimationsaremainlyattributabletohighermemorypricesdrivenbysupplyissuesratherthandemandrecovery.DRAM:What’snextafterthelongest-lastingandhistorica

3、llyhighpriceincrease?WeexpecttheDRAMmarkettogrowby~70%yoyin2017,reaching~US$70bnthankstoa40%+ASPhikewhichisthehighestlevelasfarasweremember.ThegrowthinthetotalDRAMmarketsizeisalsoatitshighestsince2010(postGFC),mainlyowingtostrongDRAMprices.Intermsofmonthlytrends,thecurrentup

4、wardtrendsinceearly2016isthelongestalongwiththehighestpriceincreases.DRAMpricetraditionallyupordown,nostabilization:FactoringinrecentcommentaryfrommajorDRAMplayersandS-Ddynamics,wenowexpectablendedDRAMASPtogoupbyamid-singledigit%qoqin3Q17followedbyamoderatedeclinein4Q17.Onc

5、eDRAMpricesbegintodecline,however,thepricecorrectionwouldbehigherthanthatexpectedbythemarketdrivenbythefactthatDRAMpriceshavebeensignificantlyincreasingformorethanayearnow.Hence,weforecastblendedDRAMpricestodeclinebyadouble-digit%in1Q/2Q18andahigherpricedeclinein2019asallnew

6、capacitywillimpactoverallsupplygrowth.NAND:Tightsupplytobeeasedin2018:Despiteanaggressivesupplyramp-upbymajorNANDplayers,S-Dremainsbalancedin3Q17thankstoanewsmartphonecycleandongoinggrowthinSSD.AsallNANDmakersfullyrampup3DNAND,weexpectsupplygrowthtosurpassdemandgrowthtoward

7、2018.AlthoughweexpectNANDpricestoexperiencesimilardeclinesasDRAMprices(20%+)in2018,theNANDmarketremainsonanupwardtrendthanksto35%+demandgrowthin2018followedbyamoderatecontractioninmarketsizein2019whichisthefirstyoydeclinesince2008.UpdateonsaleofToshibaMemory:TheNikkeiseesac

8、hanceforToshibatoreplacetheWDC-ledconsortiumwithaBainCapital-ledconsortiumi