j.p. 摩根-美股-科技行业-支付与处理器行业2018年展望-2071212-86页

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1、Completed11Dec201707:28PMESTDisseminated12Dec201712:15AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch12December2017Payments&Processors2018OutlookOurPayments&Processorscoverageisupbigin2017,outperformingthePayments,Processors&ITS&P500by27pptsonamarketcapweightedbasisor16

2、pptsequal-weighted.ServicesManythemeshavecontributedtotheoutperformance,inourview,includingTien-tsinHuang,CFAACconsolidation(enhancingmultiplesandearnings),collaboration(reducing(1-212)622-6632disintermediationfears)andmix-shifttomoreefficientandfastergr

3、owingtech-tien-tsin.huang@jpmorgan.combaseddistribution.Moreover,potentialtaxreformwouldbeanicenetpositiveforBloombergJPMAHUANGthegroup.Withmanystocksatpeakmultiples,itishardtofindvaluegoingintoReginaldL.Smith,CFA2018,sowe’restickingwithourpreference

4、fornamesthatexhibit(1)ahigh(1-212)622-6743reginald.l.smith@jpmorgan.comdigitalorientation,(2)excesscapitaltofundacquisitionsand(3)leverstoexpandPuneetJainmargins,assuming2017trendsholdandvaluationspersist.Thematically,PYPL,(1-212)622-1436SQandGPNfitthese

5、themesthebest,whichiswhyweremainOverweight,butpuneet.x.jain@jpmorgan.comhighvaluationsandlowmarginforerrormakethesemoreopportunisticnewConnorAllenmoneyideas.For2018,werecommendMAandFLTasourtoppicks.(1-212)622-1303connor.allen@jpmorgan.comExpectingkey201

6、7themestocarryonin2018.ThisyearsawaspikeinJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCannouncedM&Aactivitytothetuneof$25B+asincumbentssoughtscaleanddigitalcontent,andweexpectthistocontinuein2018,withPYPL,VandMAwiththemostexcesscapitaltodeploy.Lookfordigitalassetstobethemosts

7、oughtafter(whichhelpsexplainhighvaluationsforPYPLandSQ),aspayments/processinggetsincreasinglyintegratedintosoftwareanddeliveredindigitalchannels(attheexpenseoflegacybankandfeetonthestreetdistribution).Finally,givenhighvaluationsandexpectationsforstableto

8、uporganicgrowth,marginexpansionstoriesshouldbeprioritizedagain,andSQ,VandMArankthehighestintermsofmarginexpansionexpectedin2018.ProjectingdecelerationinrevenueandEPSgrowthin2018,butexpectgenerallystableorganictrends.Wesee