日本的外国资产和负债：对外部帐户的影 响.docx

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1、TableofContentsAbstract1I.Introduction3II.WhatHasDriventheIncreaseinJapan’sIncomeBalance?4III.HowDoesJapan’sIncomeBalanceComparetoPeers?8IV.InterconnectednessBetweentheTradeandIncomeBalances11V.DoestheChangeinCurrentAccountCompositionTowardsIncomeBalanceAffectitsResponsivenesst

2、otheRealExchangeRate?14VI.Conclusions19References22Box1.TheRiseinCorporateSavinginJapan6Figures1.Japan’sIncreasingIncomeBalanceanditsComposition52.Japan’sIncomeBalanceComparedtoPeers83.GeographicalAllocationofFDIAssets,andImpactonYields104.NegativeCorrelationBetweenTradeandInco

3、meBalances13Tables1.JapanandG6IncomeBalance–ContributionsofStocksandYields(2015–17average)92.TheoreticalEffectsofREERAppreciationonTradeandIncomeBalances163.IncomeCreditandDebitElasticitiestoREER:BaselineSpecification17Annexes1.ComparingJapan’sIncomeBalancetoPeers–TheRoleofStoc

4、ksvs.ImpliedYields252.ComparingJapan’sIncomeBalancetoPeers–AdvancedCreditorCountries273.IncomeBalanceSemi-ElasticityEstimates–DataandSources284.IncomeCreditandDebit–DisentanglingMechanicalandEconomicEffects295.IncomeBalanceElasticities–EmpiricalStrategy336.IncomeBalanceElastici

5、ties–RobustnessTestsandAdditionalEstimates36I.INTRODUCTIONOverthepastdecades,thecompositionofJapan’scurrentaccountbalancehaschangedwithanow-salientincomebalance.Althoughtheheadlinecurrentaccountbalancehasremainedrelativelystable,fluctuatingaround3percentofGDP(exceptintheafterma

6、thofthe2011Fukushimaaccident),thetradesurplushasbeendecreasingovertime,andtheincomebalancehasincreased.WhilethispartlyreflectsJapan’sgrowingNFApositionandgreaterfinancialintegrationwiththerestoftheworld,includingthroughglobalvaluechains,abetterunderstandingofthedriversbehindthe

7、compositionalchangeinJapan’scurrentaccountbalanceiswarranted.Importantly,theconsequencesfromthegrowingincomebalance—intermsoftheresponsivenessofJapan’scurrentaccountbalancetoexchangeratemovements—haveyettobeassessed.ThispaperstudiesthemainfactorsdrivingJapan’sgrowingincomebalan

8、ce,andmakesafirstattemptatestimatingtheresponsivenesso