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1、CreditGlobalFoodRetailbarometerChartingglobalfeedbackonCOVID-19disruption8April2020EquityResearchEuropeResearchAnalystVictoriaPetrova+496975382272victoria.petrova@credit-suisse.comDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSURE
2、ANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingth
3、eirinvestmentdecision.ChartingglobalfeedbackonCOVID-19drivendisruptionWepublishthispresentationtohighlightouranalysisandsummarizeglobaldatapointsonconsumerbehavior,relevantforfoodretailsector.Whileeachcountryhasitsownspecifics,thelockdownmighthaveasimilarimpactonfoodretailmarketsacrosstheglo
4、bewithcross-readsbeingrelevantandcountriessubjecttolockdownearlierservingasaleadingindicatorfortheones,shuttingdownlater.WeacknowledgethedemanddestructionwroughtbyCOVID-19leadstoenormousuncertaintieswithahighvolatilityindemand,changingcoststructureandpotentialimpactofsupplychain.Assuch,thisa
5、nalysisisonabesteffortsbasis,largelyreflectsouranalysts’viewsandjudgements(allfiguresshouldbeviewedasCreditSuisseestimates,unlessanothersourcegiven)andshouldbeconsideredasrepresentingapicturebeforeApril2020,i.e.reflectingstockpilingandfirst“stayhome”–dynamics.Weplantocontinuetosharefeedbacka
6、ndanalysisforeachfoodretailerundercoverageandwillupdatethemarketassignificantdevelopmentsimpactthesectorglobally.YourCreditSuisseglobalfoodretailcoverageteam(VictoriaPetrova,OnurMuminoglu,JudahFrommer,VictorSaragiotto,TakahiroKazahaya,GrantSaligari)EuropeTesco(Neutral,PT248p)-UK§FirstsignofC
7、OVIDnoticed:31stJan§Schoolsclosedsince:23rdMar§Positivesalesdrivers:Initialstockpiling,shifttoeatingathomeshouldboostsupermarketsalesby13.2%for3months§Negativesalesdrivers:WholesalerBookeraccountsforc9.4%of20/21esales,petrolsalesatrisk,disruptionin
