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1、DEEPDIVE
2、EUROPEPleaserefertoimportantinformationand2July2019MARdisclosuresattheendofthisreportMARKETECONOMICS
3、G10FX
4、EQUITY&DERIVATIVES
5、G10INTERESTRATES
6、CREDITECB–QE2tosetsailKEYMESSAGESBytheendof2019,weexpecttheEuropeanCentralBanktohavereintroducedaneasingb
7、iasintoitsforwardguidance,deliveredtwo10bpcutstothedepositrate,introducedtieringandannouncedaresumptionofquantitativeeasing.Wewouldalsonotruleoutachangeintheconditionalityofforwardguidance,linkingratestotheactualachievementoftheinflationobjective.Wethinkthe
8、ECBwillannounceaEUR35–40bnmonthlypaceofpurchasesinDecemberforsixtoninemonths,leavingthedooropentoafurtherextension,withrisksofanearlierannouncement.ThenewQEprogrammewillconcentrateongovernmentbonds,inourview,complementedbypurchasesofprivate-sectorassets.MAR
9、KETVIEWSFX:AresumptionofQEwilllikelycurbEURgains,evenagainstabroadlyweakerUSD.WenowexpectEURUSDtopeakat1.20inearlyQ4.However,weremaintacticallybullish,targeting1.18inQ3.OurnewforecastsareevenmorebearishontheEURJPYcrossratethanbefore.Wenowtarget116byyear-end
10、.Rates:Tieringwillbeaimedatmitigatingthecostoffurthercuts.Inourview,itwillnotleadtonoticeableupwardpressureonovernightrates.Werevisedouryear-endforecaston2yand10yGermanyto−85bpand−50bp.ForItaly,weseethe10yspreadoverBundsreturnbelow170bpatthestartoftheQEprog
11、ramme.Wealsoexpectricherbondsvsswap.Equities:Renewedunconventionalmonetarypolicycouldaccelerateanewwaveof‘de-equitisation’inequitymarkets,drivenbyprivateequityinvestment.WethinkthiscouldbeacatalystfortheEuropevaluefactor,followingrecentunderperformance.Cred
12、it:WeestimateaCSPPeligibilitypoolofc.€330bnforNon-Financials.TheinclusionofBanksSeniorPreferredbondsisalsoanoptionbutiscomplicatedbypotentialconflictsofinterest.TABLEOFCONTENTSFromVilniustoSintra……………………………………………..2Solidcaseforaction………………………………………………3Quest
13、ionsandanswersonlikelyECBpolicyinH22019…….4Tiering:Softeningthepainofcuts………………………………5Policyrate:Limitedroomforcuts……………………………….6Tradeidea:EURUSDxccy……………………………………….7QEannouncement:SeptemberversusDecem
