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1、FOCUS
2、EM28June2019EMSTRATEGYBrazil:Inflowsfromnon-residentsbackontrackKEYMESSAGESNon-residents’shareoflocalpublicdebtincreasesslightlyNon-residents’shareofBrazilianlocalpublicdebtNon-residents’shareofBrazilianlocalpublicdebtincreasedby0.2%m/minMay,withtotalinflowsincreas
3、edby0.2%inMayandnowstandsatBRL476bnamountingtoBRL10.6bn(~USD2.7bn),accordingtothe(~USD121bn).Inflows,meanwhile,amountedtoMinistryofFinance’slatestdata.BRL10.6bn(~USD2.7bn).Inthelastfivemonths,non-residents’inflowsamountedFurthermore,non-residents’shareoftotalpublicdebtto
4、~USD15.2bn.Thisisthefirsttimesince2015thatincreasedto12.7%duringthemonth,representing31.4%wehaveseeninflowsforfiveconsecutivemonths.ofinternationalreserves(currentlyatUSD386bn).WeestimatecurrentpublicdebtexposuretonominalratestobeUSD64.4mnDV01.Ourupdatedlocalmacrofundpos
5、itioningmodelsuggeststhatlocalmacrohedgefundsarebullishonrates,BRLandBrazilianequities.Table1andFig.1-4:BreakdownofpublicdebtBRL(bn)May-19m/m%y/y%Apr-19May-18DomesticPublicDebt3,735%ofTotal0%5%3,723%ofTotal3,574%ofTotalFinancialInstitutions82222.0%2%3%80621.6%80022.4%Loc
6、alFunds99326.6%2%3%97226.1%96326.9%PensionFunds92724.8%-3%4%95225.6%89225.0%Non-residents47612.7%2%11%46512.5%42712.0%GovernmentInstitutions1524.1%-6%-1%1624.3%1544.3%InsuranceCompanies1524.1%1%10%1504.0%1383.9%Others2145.7%-1%7%2165.8%2005.6%PublicDebtHoldingsPublicDebt
7、HoldingsbyForeigners(%)4.1%5.7%4.8%0.7%4.1%22.0%4.1%FinancialInstitutionsFixed-ratecouponbonds(NTN-F)LocalFunds12.7%Fixed-ratebulletbondsPensionFunds(LTN)44.4%Non-residentsInflation-linkedbonds(NTN-B)GovernmentInstitutions46.1%Floating-rateBondsInsuranceCompanies26.6%Oth
8、ersOthers24.8%Foreigners'participationinBrazilianlocaldebt(BRLbn)MonthlyForeigners'Flows(BRL,bn)55030Foreigners'participationinBrazilianlocaldebt(%,RHS)20%204501017%-35014%(10)25011%(20)Jan-15Dec-15Nov-16Oct-17Aug-18Jan-15Dec-15Nov-16Oct-17Aug-18Sources:BloombergLLP,Braz
9、il’sMinistryofFinance(MinistériodaFazenda),BNPParibasSamuelCastro,EM/LatamStrategist
10、LucaMaia,EM/LatamS
