如何实施主席的计划-汇丰银行中国宏观策略报告

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1、ChinaInsideOutECONOMICSCHINAHowtoimplementPresidentXi’splan?Shiftingthegrowthmodeltoaproductivity-ledoneholdstheQuHongbinkeytoturningChinaintoastrongandwealthynation…ChiefEconomist,GreaterChinaTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedhongbinqu@hsbc.com.hkKeypil

2、larsforproductivitygrowthareinnovation,human+85228222025capital,infrastructure,entrepreneurshipandlabourmobilityJuliaWangEconomist,GreaterChinaTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedWelookatwhatneedstobedonetostrengthenthesekeyjuliarwang@hsbc.com.hk+8523604366

3、3pillars–themainpolicytasksinthecomingyearsAakankshaBhatBangaloreAssociateAttherecentlyconcluded19thPartyCongress,PresidentXilaidoutanambitiousdevelopmentplan,aimingtobuildChinaintoastrong,prosperousandinnovation-driveneconomyby2035,andthenaleadingglobalpowerby2050.Toa

4、chievethis,Chinaneedstomaintainsteadyeconomicgrowthandkeepsystemicrisksincheck.Thekeytocontainingsystemicrisksistoresolvethedebtproblem.SinceChina’sdebtisdisproportionallyconcentratedinstate-owned-enterprises(SOEs)–theyaccountforover70%ofcorporatedebt–restructuringSOEs

5、isthepriorityinordertodefuserisks.Meanwhile,China’spopulationisageingandcapitalstock(atleastinconstruction)isnolongerlow.Tosustaingrowth,Chinamustshiftitsgrowthmodelfromfactoraccumulationtoonethat’sproductivity-driven.Inthisnote,weidentifyfivepillarsforproductivitygrow

6、thinChina,andassesswhatcanandwilllikelybedonetostrengthentheminthecomingyears:Innovation:China-madeinnovationhasarrivedontheworldstagequietly,especiallyinconsumer-facingmanufacturinganddigitalisedservices.Moreintellectualpropertyprotection,industry-academiacollaborati

7、on,andinvestmentinbasicresearchisrequiredtoencouragebreakthroughsinscienceandadvancedmanufacturing.Humancapital:China’seducationattainmenthasrisensteadilyoverthepastdecades,butpre-schooleducation,mid-careertrainingandgreaterskilldiversityisneededforamoreinnovation-led

8、economy.Infrastructure:BasicinfrastructureismuchimprovedbutmoreinvestmentinInformationCommunicationTechnology(ICT),f