欢迎来到天天文库
浏览记录
ID:8226738
大小:687.80 KB
页数:24页
时间:2018-03-10
《汇丰银行-中国-宏观经济-中国内幕:通货膨胀的甜蜜点》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、12February2018ChinaInsideOutECONOMICSCHINAInflationsweetspotHeadlineCPIinflationislikelytorisegraduallyonhigherfoodandoilpricesaswellascontinuedservicepricederegulationButcoreinflationshouldstaywithinthecurrent2-3%range,givenslackcapacityinindustryandthelabourmarketWeth
2、inkthePBoCwilllookthroughtheriseinheadlineCPIinflationandmaintainits‘neutral’policystanceOnthebackofthemostsustainedgrowthrecoverysince2011,investors’attentionisshiftingtoinflation.WhileheadlineCPIinflationwilllikelypickupmoderatelyin2018,thebiggerstoryisaboutmovingoutofdisinfl
3、ationratherthandemand-pulledQuHongbinCo-headAsianEconResearch,ChiefChinaEconomistinflation.Foodpricesfellforthefirsttimein15yearsin2017.AcolderwinterandTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedslowersupplygrowthcouldseepricesbouncingbackthisyear.Fuelisanotherhongbinqu@hsb
4、c.com.hk+85228222025potentialfactor.China’sregulatedoilpricetendstofilterouttheextremeswingsinJuliaWanginternationalcrudeoilprices,butgenerallyallowssmallerchangestopassthrough.Economist,GreaterChinaThisintroducessomebaseeffectrelatedpick-upininflationaroundmid-year,andTheHongk
5、ongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedjuliarwang@hsbc.com.hkmoreifoilpricesheadhigher.+85236043663Apartfromfoodandfuelprices,servicepriceinflationhasalsocrepthigherinrecentAakankshaBhatEconomistyears.Inparticular,medicalhealthcarecostsrose6%in2017,adding0.6ppttoTheHongkongandS
6、hanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedaakanksha.bhat@hsbc.com.hkheadlineinflation.Thetimingoftheaccelerationwaslargelyduetoderegulationof+85228224297healthcareprices.Whilehealthcarepricescouldremainsupportedin2018,theimpactwilllikelybeoffsettosomedegreebymoremoderatehousepricegains.B
7、ut,morefundamentally,wethinkdemand-pulledinflationwillbemoderatein2018.Despiteswingingbacktoinflationin2017,producerpricesareonlyjustbacktotheirend-2012levels.Althoughsomeexport-orientedsectorshaveseenafasterrecoveryintheircapacityutilisationrate,overallindustrialsectorcapacity
8、utilisationisjustbeginningtorecoverfromthepost-GFClows
此文档下载收益归作者所有