中国互联网业行业深度报告：谁是赢家

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1、ChinaInternetSectorASSUMINGCOVERAGEIdentifyingthewinnersFigure1:Long-termwinnersunderourkeythemesDataTechnologyAlibabaTencentConsumptionGamesUpgradeConsolidationSource:CreditSuisseresearch■Threekeythemes.(1)Weexpectdatatechnologycontinuestofuelgrowthofkeysub-segmentsacrossadvert

2、ising,entertainmentande-commerceamidstaslowdowninusergrowth.Datatechnologyisbecomingthemostimportantdriveronpersonalisedrecommendationstoenhanceuserexperienceandmonetisation.(2)Weexpectacceleratinggamesconsolidation,withscaleandR&Dbeingthekeytowinsharein2018.(3)Consumptionupgrad

3、ewillnotonlydrivee-commerce/educationbutalsodigitalconsumptioninentertainmentsuchasgamingandpaidsubscriptions.■Preferencesacrosssub-segments.Weprefere-commerce>onlinegames>advertising,asonlineshoppinghashigherexposuretoconsumptionupgradestorywithdatatechnologydisruptingandenlarg

4、ingtheaddressablemarkettooverallretailsector.Wepreferonlinegamestoadvertisingwiththeformerbeingaconsolidatedmarketwithclearleaderswhilethelatterremainsunderintensecompetition.Amongourcoverageuniverse,AlibabaandTencentareourtopsectorpicks.■What’snotintheprice.Webelievethemarketha

5、snotfactoredinthemonetisationpotentialofAlibaba’sfrontpageaswellasTencent’sgameportfoliostrategyandexpansionpacks.Oursensitivityanalysisshowsthereareabout4-15%upsidetoourTPson3%to9%incrementalrevenuecontributiontocorebusinesses.OurearningsestimatesarebelowconsensusforAlibabaaswe

6、factorinhighercostsonnewinitiatives.■Stockpicks.AlibabaandTencentaretop-tierinternetgiantswhichtradeat28-32x2018EP/E,atapremiumtothesectoraverageof22x,whichweviewisjustifiedgiventheirrespectivescalesandexecutioncentredondatatechnology.Amongourstockpicks,wepreferAlibabathemostaso

7、nlineshoppingisundergoingarevolutionarytrend,andAlibabaisdemonstratingstrongexecutioncapabilitiesasanenablertoretailsector.WeassumecoverageonAlibabaandTencentwithTPsofUS$220.0andHK$416.0,whichimply27%and24%upsides,respectively.Inthisreport,wealsodiscussourviewsonvariousothersub-

8、sectorsincludinglivestreaming,educationandtrave