瑞信-中国互联网业行业深度报告：谁是赢家？-2017.10.3-credit suisse-china internet sector identifying the winners

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1、3October2017AsiaPacific/HongKongEquityResearchTechnologyChinaInternetSectorResearchAnalystsASSUMINGCOVERAGEThomasChong85221016164thomas.chong@credit-suisse.comIdentifyingthewinnersMonicaChen85221017150Figure1:Long-termwinnersunderourkeythemesmonica.chen@credit-suisse.comAlexXie85221

2、017462Dataalex.xie@credit-suisse.comTechnologyAlibabaTencentConsumptionGamesUpgradeConsolidationSource:CreditSuisseresearch■Threekeythemes.(1)Weexpectdatatechnologycontinuestofuelgrowthofkeysub-segmentsacrossadvertising,entertainmentande-commerceamidstaslowdowninusergrowth.Datatechn

3、ologyisbecomingthemostimportantdriveronpersonalisedrecommendationstoenhanceuserexperienceandmonetisation.(2)Weexpectacceleratinggamesconsolidation,withscaleandR&Dbeingthekeytowinsharein2018.(3)Consumptionupgradewillnotonlydrivee-commerce/educationbutalsodigitalconsumptioninentertain

4、mentsuchasgamingandpaidsubscriptions.■Preferencesacrosssub-segments.Weprefere-commerce>onlinegames>advertising,asonlineshoppinghashigherexposuretoconsumptionupgradestorywithdatatechnologydisruptingandenlargingtheaddressablemarkettooverallretailsector.Wepreferonlinegamestoadvertising

5、withtheformerbeingaconsolidatedmarketwithclearleaderswhilethelatterremainsunderintensecompetition.Amongourcoverageuniverse,AlibabaandTencentareourtopsectorpicks.■What’snotintheprice.WebelievethemarkethasnotfactoredinthemonetisationpotentialofAlibaba’sfrontpageaswellasTencent’sgamepo

6、rtfoliostrategyandexpansionpacks.Oursensitivityanalysisshowsthereareabout4-15%upsidetoourTPson3%to9%incrementalrevenuecontributiontocorebusinesses.OurearningsestimatesarebelowconsensusforAlibabaaswefactorinhighercostsonnewinitiatives.■Stockpicks.AlibabaandTencentaretop-tierinternetg

7、iantswhichtradeat28-32x2018EP/E,atapremiumtothesectoraverageof22x,whichweviewisjustifiedgiventheirrespectivescalesandexecutioncentredondatatechnology.Amongourstockpicks,wepreferAlibabathemostasonlineshoppingisundergoingarevolutionarytrend,andAlibabaisdemonstratingstrongexecutioncapa

8、bilitiesasanenabler