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1、30June2017AsiaPacific/ChinaEquityResearchAirlinesChinaAirlinesSectorResearchAnalystsSECTORREVIEWBaoyingZhai85221017135Macroheadwindsabatebaoying.zhai@credit-suisse.comAndyLiFigure1:EarningsliftonbetteryieldandFXassumptions85221016197andy.li@credit-suisse.com10,00017E,RMBmnFrom6%depr.to2%appr.8,
2、0002,6686,0004,0002,1718,0882,000Domesticyieldto3,249rise3%more0OldAvgNPYieldchangeFXchangeNewAvgNPSource:CreditSuisseestimates;Note:aboveisaverageearningsofBig3in2017E■UpgradeCEAtoOUTPERFORM,CSAtoNEUTRAL.Withbetter-than-expecteddomesticdemandandmacrotailwinds,weliftourFY17/18Eearningsby150%/78
3、%fortheBig3airlines,factoringinourlatesthouseviewofUSDCNYat6.81(vs7.33previously)byend-2017andastrongerdomesticyield(3%morethantheoldassumption).GivenCEA'scheapervaluation(i.e.,1.05xP/B)withsimilarexpectedreturnonbackofgradualinternationalrecovery,wepreferCEAmorethantheothertwo,whicharetradinga
4、t1.2xP/B,havingalmostpricedintheearningsupsidewithexpectedrecurringROEat12%.■Better-than-expecteddomesticsupply-demandsupportsyield.In4M17,ChinadomesticRPKgrewat14.3%YoY,withPLFcontinuouslyimprovingto83.6%,betterthanourfull-yearexpectationof10%YoYandflatPLF,thankstostrongunderlyingeconomyandcon
5、sumptionupgrade.Webelievedomesticdemandshouldsustain,givenstill-lowairtrafficpenetrationandrisinghouseholdincomes.Meanwhile,tightslotsattier-1/2airportshelpconstrainthesupplyside.Overall,webelieveyieldsofroutesbetweentier-1airportsremainsolidwhiletier-2/3wouldgraduallyimprove.Weliftourdomesticy
6、ieldassumptionsby3%onaveragefor2017E.■Internationaldemandlikelytorecovermoderatelyin2H17.Lookinginto2H17,webelievedemandforkeyregionaldestinations(i.e.,KoreaandThailand)islikelytorecoverwithabatingpoliticaldisruptionsandlong-haulroutes(e.g.,EU/US)toresumewithastrongerRMB.Wekeepourfull-yearinter
7、nationalyieldassumptionslargelyflat,butexpect2H17'syielddeclinetofurthernarrowto-1.8%YoY(vs-4%in1H17E).■Macroheadwindsturningintotailwinds.A2%RMBappreciationvsUSDandan18%declineofBrentYTDhaveprovidedafavourablemacrobackdropforChin
