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1、17July2017AsiaPacific/HongKongEquityResearchCapitalGoodsChinaIndustrialSectorResearchAnalystsSECTORFORECASTEdmondHuang,CFA85221016701edmond.huang@credit-suisse.comCranes,nottrainsAmyJi85221017735Figure1:EMUdemandnormalisedatalowerlevel;robustgrowthforamy.ji@c
2、redit-suisse.comconstructionmachinerycontinues70040%60035%30%50025%40020%30015%20010%1005%-0%(100)-5%(200)-10%20072008200920102011201220132014201520161Q17(300)2011201220132014201520162017E2018E2019E2020EGrossmargin-ZoomlionGM-SanyLength-HSRLength-IntercityDen
3、sityNetmargin-ZoomlionNetmargin-SanySource:MOT,Companydata,CreditSuisseestimates■High-speedtrainislosingitstrackforgrowth.WeexpectthedemandonEMUs(electricmultipleunits)tonormaliseat300-350unitsin2017-19—weakerthanmarketexpectationsand~30%belowitspeak,given(1)
4、theunexcitingnewlengthadditionand(2)amoderateincreaseindensity.Whileinter-citylinescanprovidesomeadditionaldemand,theyfacepotentialdelayas50%oftheprojectsareyettobeconstructed.ChinaStandardEMUismoresymbolicthanapracticalgrowthdriverwithlower-than-expectedASP.
5、■Constructorscontinuetostrugglewithrevenuerecognition.Newordergrowthmomentumremainedstrongin2Q,mainlydrivenbyPPP(public-privatepartnership)projects,butweexpectnoaccelerationinrevenuegrowth.Theimpactonrevenueandprofittendstobemoremuted,givenlongerPPPexecution.
6、Webelievenewordergrowthwillslowdownin2H17dueto(1)lastyear'shighbase,and(2)tighteningregulationsonPPP.■Constructionmachineryinasweetspotwithrobustsalesandbetterprofitability.YTDsalesvolumesurprisedthemarketontheupsidewithnoslowingdown.Webelievetherobustsaleswi
7、llboost1H17resultswithmarginexpansion.Lookingforward,webelievesalesmomentumremainssolidin3Q17.Wethinktheoveralldemandissustainable,thanksto(1)infrastructuredemand,(2)replacementcycleduetoageingissues,and(3)acceleratingproductupgradesontighteningenvironmentalr
8、egulations.■Stockpicks.OurtoppicksareLonking,Zoomlion,Sany,andCCCC.Wecontinuetolikeconstructionmachinery.Amongconstructors,welikeCCCCthemost,thankstoitsoverseasexposure.WemaintainourUNDER
