瑞信-中国-电力公用事业行业-中国太阳能行业：低度供过于求行业中的主要赢家

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1、10January2018AsiaPacific/ChinaEquityResearchElectricUtilitiesChinaSolarSectorResearchAnalystsTHEMEGaryZhou,CFA85221016648gary.zhou@credit-suisse.comKeywinnersinalessoversuppliedindustryDaveDai,CFA85221017358Figure1:Supply-demanddynamicsofsolarsubsectorsin2018dave.dai@credit-s

2、uisse.com2018outlookPreviousNewMargin/IRRValuationOverallToppicksGloriaYan85221017369expectationforecastsgloria.yan@credit-suisse.comSolarfarmdemandDown~10%Up2%ImprovingExpensive-PolysiliconBalancedTightsupplyImprovingAttractiveGCLMono-waferTightsupplyBalancedDroppingExpe

3、nsive-Multi-wafer(diamond-wire)BalancedBalancedStableAttractiveGCLSolarglassOversupplyBalancedRecoveringAttractiveXYSSource:Companydata,CreditSuisseestimates■Timetofocusonsupplyside.WerevisedupChinasolardemandfrom42GWto46GWforFY18EasthebettertariffdecisionbytheNationalD

4、evelopmentandReformCommission(NDRC)inDec2017shouldkeepsolarfarmreturnslucrativeandsupportinstallationmomentum.Thiswouldmeanaverageindustryforecastsforglobaldemandnowsuggestinga2%YoYincreaseinsteadofacontractionasmanyinvestorsfeared.Onthelessoversuppliedvaluechain,wearemostupb

5、eatonthedemand-supplydynamicsofpolysiliconandsolarglass,butturnselectiveonwafers.■Polyandglassbestpositioned.Alongthevaluechain,supplydisciplinesarestrongforpolysiliconandsolarglass,especiallyin1H18.Evenwithsomenewsuppliesin2H18,capacityutilisationshouldremainhighat~95%forpol

6、yand~85%forglass,supportinglucrativemargins.Forwafers,costandtechnologycouldtriggermarketconsolidation.Weexpectmono-wafersandlow-costmulti-waferproducers(diamond-wiretechnology)totakemarketsharefromconventionalmulti-wafers(usingslurry-wire).■Keycatalystsforselectedplayers.The

7、sedynamicsareclearlyfavourabletoGCLwithitsstrongerpositioninmulti-wafers(afterthetechnologyupgradetodiamond-wirein2017)andexpandingpolycapacityin2H18.Withalimitedexpectedsupplyincrease,solarglassprofitabilityshouldrecover(withgrossmarginsimprovingto~35%in1H18from30%inFY17E).H

8、owever,weturncautiousonmono-wafersastherecentpolycostriseisexpectedt