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1、TheEffectofaGeneralizedAppreciationofEastAsianCurrenciesonExportsfromChina(节选)GordonR·SmithGeorgeMasonUniversity,2002MasterofBusinessAdministrationOverthepastseveralyears,Chinahasseenasignificantriseinitstradeandcurrentaccountsurpluses.TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)estimatesthatbytheendof2007,
2、China'scurrentaccountsurplusrepresented11.1percentofthecountry'sgrossdomesticproduct(GDP).At$361billion,itwasthelargestsurplusofanycountryintheworld,morethan$100billiongreaterthanthecountrywiththesecondlargestsurplus,Japan.Withsuchalargeoverallsurplus,itwouldseemthatChinawouldhaveatradesurpluswit
3、hjustabouteveryothercountryintheworld.Interestingly,thisisnotthecase.Thereappearstobeafairlycleardelineation,asitregardsChina'stradeaccountsbetweenthosecountriesinEastAsiaandtherestoftheworldOfChina'ssevenlargesttradingpartnersin2007(countries/regionsthatrepresentedmorethan$100billionintotaltrade
4、valueeach),fivewereinEastAsia.TheywereJapan,ASEAN(AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations),HongKong,SouthKorea,andTaiwan.ExcludingHongKong,thefourremainingcountries/regions,asagroup,recordedatradesurpluswithChinaofmorethan$180billion.Thatis,intermsofitstradeaccounts,Chinaranasubstantialtradedeficitwit
5、hitsmajortradingpartnersinEastAsia.Ontheothersideoftheequation,Chinahadasubstantialtradesurpluswithitstwolargesttradepartners,theEuropeanUnion(EU)andtheUnitedStates(U.S.).Withatotalvalueintradeofmorethan$600billion(importsplusexports),theEUandU.S.HadacombineddeficitwithChinaofmorethan$270billion.
6、WhatthisimpliesisthatthetradedeficitswhichChinacarrieswithitstradingpartnersinEastAsiaaremorethancompensatedbythetradesurplusesthatChinacarrieswiththerestoftheworld.Itisthesizeofthesetradesurplusesthathasbecomethefocusofattentionofanumberofcountries,especiallytheUnitedStates.Chinahasreceivedagrea
7、tdealofscrutinyintheU.S.becauseofthesizeofitsbilateraltradesurplus.SeveralpoliticiansandsomeeconomistshavecalledforanappreciationoftheRMBasapossiblemeansofaffectingChina'stradesurpluswiththeUnitedStates.Thishascomelarg
