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1、33CAUSATIONChristopherHitchcockIntroductionInapaperreadbeforetheAristotelianSociety,BertrandRussell(1913:1)claimed:Allphilosophers,ofeveryschool,imaginethatcausationisoneofthefundamentalaxiomsorpostulatesofscience,yet,oddlyenough,inadvancedsciencessuchasg
2、ravitationalastronomy,theword“cause”neverappears...Tome,itseemsthat...thereasonwhyphysicshasceasedtolookforcausesisthat,infact,therearenosuchthings.Thelawofcausality,Ibelieve,likemuchthatpassesmusteramongphilosophers,isarelicofabygoneage,surviving,likethe
3、monarchy,onlybecauseitiserroneouslysupposedtodonoharm.Russellwashardlyaloneinthatopinion.Otherwritersoftheperiod,suchasErnstMach,KarlPearson,andPierreDuhem,alsorejectedasunscienti!cthenotionofcausation.Theirviewwassharedalsobymostofthelogicalpositivists.I
4、ndeed,theconceptofcausationwasregardedwithsuspicionbyphilosophers,aswellasbymanystatisticiansandsocialscientists,throughoutmuchofthetwentiethcentury.ContrarytoRussell’sclaim,however,themostcasualperusaloftheleadingscienti!cjournalsrevealsthatcausallocutio
5、nsarecommonplaceinscience.The2006volumeofPhysicalReviewLetterscontainsarticleswithtitleslike“InverseAndersonTransitionCausedbyFlatbands”(byMasakiGoda,ShinyaNishino,andHirokiMatsuda)and“SofteningCausedbyProfuseShearBandinginaBulkMetallicGlass”(byH.Bei,S.Xi
6、e,andE.P.George).Indeed,physicistsrefertoavarietyofphenomenaas“effects”:the“Halleffect,”the“Kondoeffect,”the“Lamb-shifteffect,”the“Zeemaneffect,”andsoon.Presumablywherethereareeffects,therearecausesaswell.Causalclaimsareevenmorecommoninthemedicalsciences:
7、forexample,a2005editorialbyE.K.MulhollandandR.A.AdegbolaintheNewEnglandJournalofMedicineborethetitle“BacterialInfections–aMajorCauseofDeathamongChildreninAfrica.”Giventheubiquityofcausalclaimsinthesciences,causationdeservestobeaconceptofgreatinteresttophi
8、losophersofscience.CHRISTOPHERHITCHCOCKAnalysesofcausationDiverseattemptshavebeenmadetoanalyzecausation,andmanyofthedebatesthatsurroundtheconceptofcausationstemfromfundamentaldisagreementsaboutthebestwaytogoaboutthe
