国际收支决定理论与国际收支调节政策

《国际收支决定理论与国际收支调节政策》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。

1、第三讲国际收支决定理论与国际收支调节政策1国际收支调节的弹性分析法30年代英国经济学家琼•罗宾逊提出，适用于30年代大萧条时，供给过剩，需求不足的世界经济环境弹性的基本概念马歇尔－勒纳条件J效应2弹性分析的基本概念进口商品的需求弹性Em=进口商品需求量的变动率/进口商品价格变动率出口商品的需求弹性Ex=出口商品需求量的变动率/出口商品价格的变动率进口商品的供给弹性Sm=进口商品供给量的变动率/进口商品价格的变动率出口商品的供给弹性Sx=出口商品供给量的变动率/出口商品价格的变动率3马歇尔－勒纳条件Marshal

2、l–LernerconditionTheconditionstatesthat,foracurrencydevaluationtohaveapositiveimpactontradebalance,thesumofpriceelasticityofexportsandimports(inabsolutevalue)mustbegreaterthan1.TheprincipleisnamedaftereconomistsAlfredMarshallandAbbaLerner.4Mathematicalderiva

3、tion5Mathematicalderivation6J曲线TheJcurve7J曲线TheJcurveTheJcurveshowstheeffectofadevaluationofacurrencyonthenetexport(exportsminusimports).WhenthedevaluationtakesplaceattthenetexportfallsfromAtoB,sincethelevelofimportisunchanged,butthecurrencyisworthless.Astim

4、egoesonthenetexportwillgraduallychangesinceconsumersbuylessimportedgoods,andothercountriesbuymoregoodsfromthecountryduetothelowerrealprice.AtCthenetexportbreakeven.Withtimethenetexportwillfindequilibrium.8国际收支调节的支出分析法absorptionapproachtothebalanceofpayments西

5、德尼•亚力山大1952年提出，着重考察总收入与总支出对国际收支的影响基本理论政策主张9TheabsorptionapproachtoBOPandexchangeratedeterminationConceptsandexemplificationWhatisabsorption?Anation’stotalexpendituresonfinalgoodsandservices11Theabsorptionapproach:ConceptBOPisdeterminedbyrealnationalincomeand

6、itsabsorptionInotherwords,BOPisdeterminedbyhowmuchisproducedandhowmuchisconsumed12DefinitionsAbsorption(a):a=c+inv+g+impRealincome(y):y=c+inv+g+exp13Corollaryy-a=exp-imp=currentaccountThecurrentaccountisdeterminedbythedifferencebetweenincome(howmuchisproduce

7、d)andabsorption(howmuchisconsumedinternally)14ImportantWheninternalconsumptionsurpassesnationalincomeacurrentaccountdeficitwillresultWheninternalconsumptionislowerthannationalincomeacurrentaccountsurpluswillresult15Theimpactofeconomicexpansionsandcontraction

8、sDuringeconomicexpansionsbothincomeandabsorptionwillincrease.Thechangeinthecurrentaccountdependsonwhichonewillrisefaster.Duringeconomiccontractionsbothincomeandabsorptionwilldecrease.Thechangein