德意志银行DB77页中国铁路行业深度研究报告 英文

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1、AsiaChinaTransportation22November2010CoverageChangeCompanyChinaRailSectorToppicksCSRCorpLtd(1766.HK),HKD8.82BuyClosetothepeak;CSRistheCompaniesfeaturedCSRCorpLtd(1766.HK),HKD8.82Buyexception2009A2010E2011EP/E(x)26.635.222.4PhyllisWangJoeLiew,CFAEV/EB

2、ITDA(x)13.117.611.4Price/book(x)3.44.74.0ResearchAnalystResearchAnalystChinaRailwayGroup(0390.HK),HKD5.77Hold(+86)2138962839(+852)220361982009A2010E2011Ephyllis.wang@db.comjoe.liew@db.comP/E(x)16.213.310.3EV/EBITDA(x)8.56.25.1WeareinitiatingontheChin

3、eserailsectorwithaneutralviewPrice/book(x)1.91.61.5ChinaRailConstruction(1186.HK),HKD9.92HoldWeareneutralontheChineserailsectorgivenpotentiallylower-than-expected2009A2010E2011Erailwayinvestmentinthecoming12thfive-yearplanandrisinguncertaintyinP/E(x)

4、18.024.910.8exploringoverseasmarkets.RailwayinfrastructurespendinginthenextfiveyearsEV/EBITDA(x)5.24.62.8maybebelowexpectations,withtheexceptionofinvestmentinurbanrailtransitPrice/book(x)2.01.91.7ChinaCommsConstruct(1800.HK),HKD7.02Sellsystemandraile

5、quipment.Wepreferrailequipmentnamestoconstructors.Our2009A2010E2011EorderofpreferenceisCSR,CRG,CRCandCCC.P/E(x)16.111.29.9GlobalMarketsResearchEV/EBITDA(x)9.57.76.6Railwayinfrastructure:Peakin2011andsignificantlydeclinein2013-2015Price/book(x)1.81.51

6、.3BasedonourchannelcheckswithgovernmentofficialsfromtheMoR,webelievethCCC'snewordersgrowththetargetsforrailwaylengthandinfrastructurespendinginthecoming12five-yearplanmaybelowerthanwhatthemarketexpects.Thegovernmentmaytonedownrailwayspendinginthenext

7、fiveyearsbyimposingstrictercontrolsonnew30%projects(especiallyhigh-speedrailwayswithdesignedspeedsofabove250km/h).25%Afterhealthygrowthin2010-2011,weexpectrailwayinfrastructurecapextopeak20%in2011andthendecline35%in2013and15%pain2014-2015,contrarytoi

8、nvestorexpectationsofapeakin2012andslightdeclinein2013-2015.15%10%Weexpectaslowerrecoveryinconstructors’overseasorders5%Constructors’overseasordersYTDsuggestthedemandpick-upisbelow0%expectations.CRCrecentlyannouncedaRmb4.1bnlossfromitsMeccaproject.20