德意志银行2010年7月中国银行业研究报告.doc

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1、AsiaChinaBanking/FinanceBanks14July2010ChinaBanksAtaninflectionpoint:MaintainOverweightIndustryUpdateToppicksChinaConstructionBank(0939.HK),HKD6.52BuyCompaniesfeaturedChinaConstructionBank(0939.HK),HKD6.52Buy2009A2010E2011EP/E(x)10.610.29.0TracyYuResearchAnalyst(+852)22036191tracy.yu@db.co

2、mJudyZhangResearchAnalyst(+852)22036193judy.zhang@db.comDivyield(%)4.24.34.4Price/book(x)2.52.01.8GlobalMarketsResearchCompanyBeginningofare-ratingstoryWebelievelocalChinesebanksharesareataninflectionpointforcontinuedoutperformance.CapitalisnolongeraconcernandpolicyrisksarenowlowerwithM2g

3、rowthhavingfallenfrom30%to21%tomeetthe17%policytarget.Onstrong1H10results,wemaintainourOverweightratingonChinesebanksandCCBasourtoppick.Nonetheless,foreignbanks'earningsinChinamaybedepressedwithneedtoraisetheprovisioncoverage.WebelieveBEAisvulnerablegivenitslowNPLcoverageratioof32%foritsChi

4、naloans.1H10resultspreview:NPup31%YoYtoleadmoderateconsensusupgradeWeestimatenetprofitofthesevenH-sharelistedbankswillgrow9.9%QoQand29%YoYtoRmb139.7bnin2Q2010,drivenbya31%growthinpre-provisionprofitwithcreditcostof45bpsonaverageloans.WeforecastNIMtorebound6bpsQoQto2.5%on19%YoYloangrowth,non

5、-interestincometorise20%YoY,andexpensestorise25%YoYwithacost/incomeratioof38%.Astheimpliedannualizednetprofitfor1H10ofRmb269bnis9.9%aboveconsensusestimates(whichhavebeenupgradedby2%afterthe1Qresults),webelievethe2Q10resultsshouldbestrongerthanexpected.ChinaMinshengBank,CCBandICBCarelikelyto

6、seethegreatestearningsupgrades.LGFVandrealestateloans–StressteststosatisfythemarketWebelievetheselfinvestigationofLGFVloansandstresstestsonrealestateloanswillbecredibleenoughtoquantifyexposureandinherentrisks,andallaynear-termmarketconcernsoverassetquality.WhilesomeincreaseintheNPLratio(les

7、sthan1%)islikelyforLGFVloansduetotighterclassificationstandards,wemaintainourfullyearprovisioningestimatesof60-65bpsofloans;additionalprovisionsforLGFVandrealestateloansshouldbesmallandmanageable.NormalizedmonetarystancebythePBOCwilllowerpolicyrisksThePB