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1、AsiaChinaEnergyOil&Gas1July2010ChinaPetroleumTradeOilandproductflowsDavidHurd,CFAResearchAnalyst(+852)22036242david.hurd@db.comChina’sApparentDemandforCrude(Figures1-10):In2009,China'sapparentdemandforoilgrew6.3%(+453kb/d)to7.65mmb/dfrom7.20mmb/din2008(Chin
2、aBureauofStatistics-CEIC).For2010,weestimateChina'sdemandforoilwillgrow7.3%(+550kb/d)to8.2mmb/d.DBChinaeconomist,MAJunisforecasting9%GDPgrowth2010.Figure20inthisreportshowsthatChina'sLTelasticityofoildemandtoGDPshouldbe0.68x.LookingatFigure1,China'soildeman
3、dgrowth(2006-09)seemstohavestabilizedvs.previousyears(1995-2005).Thisisagoodthingforglobaloilmarkets.MightChina’soildemandturnnegative2H10?-YES-Wewereaskedtheabovequestionbyacustomerafewmonthsback.ThequestionwasinreferencetoourviewthatChina’syear-on-yeardem
4、andgrowthforcrude2010Ewouldslowdramatically2H10vs.1H10.Wehaveinsertedafewmoretables(Figures7-10)inthisreportthatanalyzetheseasonalityofChina’soildemandbylookingatsuchthingsasdispersion,frequencyandgrowthreversalsmonthbymonth,yearbyyear.Wewillextendthisanaly
5、sistoindividualproductsoverthecomingmonths.Theprincipal“Chinaoildemand”takeawaypointsasdepictedinFigures7-10are1)monthlyoildemandlowsareconsistentlyseen1Q;2)monthlyoildemandhighsarespreadoutalmostequally1Hand2Hacrossthefullyear;3)cumulativeyear-on-yearoilde
6、mandrarelyturnsnegative;4)monthlyyear-on-yearoildemandfrequentlyturnsnegative.MightChina’smonthly,year-on-year,oildemandgrowthturnnegative2H10?Yes.WesuspectthatChina’smonthly,year-on-yeardemandgrowthforoilcouldturnnegativeinJuly,possiblyAugust,OctoberandDec
7、ember.(Figure10)MightChina’scumulative,year-on-yearoildemandgrowthturnnegative2H10?No.Weareforecastingfullyearoildemandgrowthof7.2%(+550kbpd)for2010vs.2009.Since2001,wehaveseenChina’scumulativey-on-yoildemandturnnegativetwice(Jan.2005andJan–June2009)butonly
8、forveryshortperiodsoftimeandneverbyyear-end.(Figure10)China’spetroleumtradefigures(Figures14-20)In2008,Chinaexported17.4mmtonsofoilproducts(+11.4%).In2009,Chinaexported25.7mmtonsofoilproducts(+48%).For
