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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChinesebanks31July2017Banking/FinanceBanksIndustryUpdateHansFan,CFACorporateprofitabilitymaintainedResearchAnalyst(+852)22036353momentum;buybigbankshans.fan@db.comIndustrialcorporateandSOEprofitgrowthstayedstronginJune
2、StephenAndrews,CFAToassessChinesebanks'assetqualityrisks,wetrackcloselytheprofitgrowthResearchAnalystofChina'sindustrialenterprises(22%ofsystemcredit)andSOEs(31%of(+852)-22036191credit).NBSreportedthatprofitsofindustrialenterprisesgrewby22%yoyinstephen-a.andrews@db.
3、com1H17(5M17:22.7%);allSOEsrecordedprofitgrowthof24.3%in1H17.Specifically,industrialSOEs,perceivedasthemosttroubledsectors(11%ofJackyZuoEdwardDusystemcredit),maintainedrapidprofitgrowth(Figure2&3).TheimprovingResearchAnalystResearchAssociatecorporateprofitabilitysho
4、uldrelieveassetqualityrisksforbanksandalsobe(+852)22036255(+852)22036185supportivetoNIM.Westaypositiveonbigbanks,ontheirhigherexposuretojacky.zuo@db.comedward.du@db.comindustrialSOEs(pleaserefertoourreport:Timetoaccumulatebigbanks).Industrialenterprises:amplesalesgr
5、owthunderpinnedprofitmomentumToppicksThecontinuedprofitgrowthofindustrialenterprisesin1H17wasmainlyICBC(1398.HK),HKD5.42Buyunderpinnedbysolidrevenuegrowthat12.6%yoy(vs.12.6%in5M17,Figure4).Among41majorsectorsofindustrialenterprise,38sawprofitgrowthyoy.BankofChina(39
6、88.HK),HKD3.79BuySource:DeutscheBankIndustry-wise,wehaveobservedthatprofitgrowthmomentumhasgraduallytransmittedfromrawmaterialstodownstreamsectors–NBSofficialsindictedautomobile,steelandelectronicequipmentmanufacturingindustries’profitgrowthoutperformedothersectorsi
7、nJune.ItisworthhighlightingthatJuneWevalueChinesebanksusingathree-monthlydatashowsfinancingcostforindustrialenterpriseswentup9.7%yoystageGordonGrowthModel(PV=(ROE-inJune,versus5.1%yoyinMay(Figure5).Thissuggestsbanks'assetyieldg)/(COE-g)),withtargetpricesbasedonmayha
8、vetrendedhigher.2017Ebookvalues.DownsideriskisaSOE:intactprofitabilityfromindustrialSOEcontributionpropertypricecorrection.UpsideriskisSOE
