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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChinesebanks2May2017Banking/FinanceBanksForecastChangeHansFan,CFAJackyZuoFundingmattersmoreResearchAnalystResearchAssociate(+852)22036353(+852)22036255hans.fan@db.comjacky.zuo@db.com1Q17resultswrap-up–fun
2、dingstrengthisthekeydifferentiatorStephenAndrews,CFAChinesebanksreported1Q17netprofitup2.7%yoy.ThiswasdrivenbyPPOPResearchAnalystgrowthof5%yoy,offsetbyhighercreditcoststotopupprovisioncoverage.(+852)-22036191Mostnotably,fundingstrengthhasbecomethekeydi
3、fferentiatoramidstephen-a.andrews@db.comescalatingfinancialdeleveraging.Retailbanks(i.e.thebig-fourandCMB),whicharemainlydeposit-funded,deliveredstronger-than-expectedresultswithKeyChangesresilientfundingcostandNIMandtopped-upprovisioncoverage.Incontra
4、st,CompanyTargetPriceRatingtheother,smallerbanksaremostlywholesale-fundedandsufferedanotable1398.HK5.73to6.00(HKD)-NIMsqueeze.Asaresult,weadjustearningsandTPsupwardsforthebig-fourbanks,whiletrimmingfortheother,smallerbanks.Toppicks:CMB&ICBC.0939.HK6.67
5、to7.08(HKD)-1288.HK3.56to3.75(HKD)-Wholesale-fundedbanksstartedtofeelthepainfromfinancialdeleveraging3988.HK4.20to4.41(HKD)-Thereisawideninggapinthefundingstrengthsbetweenretailandcorporate3968.HK23.37to-banks.ThebigbanksandCMBrecordedstablefundingcost
6、sduetotheir23.47(HKD)strongdepositfranchise,andtheybenefitedfromhighermarketrates.Thishas0998.HK4.26to4.14(HKD)-ledtomoredecentprofitability(Fig7).Butontheotherhand,thecorporate1988.HK7.39to6.91(HKD)-banksareheavilyreliantonwholesalefunding,i.e.borrowi
7、ngfrominterbank6818.HK3.10to2.93(HKD)-andNBFIsandissuanceofbonds/CDs,whichinaggregatemadeup33%of3618.HK5.26to5.37(HKD)-liabilities(Fig4).Assuch,thehighermarketrates,whichwereengineeredby3698.HK2.89to2.77(HKD)-thePBOCtodeleverthefinancialsector(seeourre
8、port,Risingfunding1963.HK5.28to5.03(HKD)-pressure,dated23March2017),havepusheduptheirfundingcosts(Fig2),600000.SS12.26to-resultinginnotableNIMcompressionof5-46bpsqoq(Fig6).11.78(CNY)LessNPLformation,butpressurepersistsforsmallerbanks601
