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1、AsiaChinaBanking/FinanceBanks23November2010IndustryUpdateCompanyChinaBanksToppicksAgri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD4.19BuyKey2011themes;beNIM-ble,ChinaConstructionBank(0939.HK),HKD7.23BuyICBC(1398.HK),HKD6.04BuyBankofBeijing(601169.SS),CNY12.07BuyBuyABC,CCB,ICB
2、C&BOBJCompaniesfeaturedTracyYuJudyZhangICBC(1398.HK),HKD6.04Buy2009A2010E2011EResearchAnalystResearchAnalystP/E(x)11.611.29.6(+852)22036191(+852)22036193Price/book(x)2.82.32.0tracy.yu@db.comjudy.zhang@db.comChinaConstructionBank(0939.HK),HKD7.23Buy2009A2010
3、E2011EDepositfranchisebankstobenefitmostfromloanpricingincreaseP/E(x)10.311.210.0Price/book(x)2.42.22.0WebelievetheimplementationofatighterregulatoryframeworkoncapitalAgri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD4.19Buyadequacy,leverageandprovisioningrequirementsduringarat
4、ehikecycleshould2009A2010E2011Eresultinasignificantimprovementinloanpricingpowerin2011.Inourview,largeP/E(x)–11.910.0banksandselectedcity-basedbanks(i.e.BOBJ)withstrongdepositfranchisesPrice/book(x)–2.11.8BankofChina(3988.HK),HKD4.27Buyshouldoutperformonhig
5、herearningsgrowthdrivenbyasmallerincreasein2009A2010E2011Efundingcostsandfasterloangrowth.Furthermore,weviewthesebanksaslessP/E(x)9.410.28.7GlobalMarketsResearchvulnerabletopolicyheadwinds,giventheirhighercapitalratiosandlowerLDR.Price/book(x)1.81.61.5Banko
6、fCommunications(3328.HK),HKD8.38HoldThepositiveimpactofrisingratesispotentiallyunderstated,inourview2009A2010E2011EOurChinaStrategist,JunMa,expectsa75bpshikeinbenchmarklendingratesinP/E(x)11.110.18.91H11andweestimateNIMforthelistedbanksmightriseby30.5bpsfro
7、m3QPrice/book(x)2.41.81.6ChinaMerchantsBank-H(3968.HK),HKD21.20Hold2010,attributabletohighermismatchincome(21.6bps),higherloanpricing2009A2010E2011E(10.6bps),depositmigrationtolow-costdemanddeposits(2.3bps)andanotherP/E(x)12.713.812.1250bpspotentialhikeinth
8、eRRR(-4bps).AsourearningsforecastshaveonlyPrice/book(x)3.72.82.3incorporatedaNIMexpansionof10bps,thesector’sPBTforecastscouldChinaCITICBank(0998.HK),HKD5.73Hold2009A2010E2011Epotentiallyberaisedby11.4%
