汇丰HSBC87页中国金属矿产行业投资策略深度研究报告 英文

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1、NaturalResourcesandEnergyabcChinaMetals&MiningGlobalResearchChinaMetals&Upcoming12thFive-YearPlantosupportcommoditymarketsgivenshiftMiningMonitortoamoresustainablegrowthmodelPlanningforthenextfiveyearsOctoberdatamixedasimportsfallsharplybutenduseractivityfi

2、rmswith4QpeakconstructionseasonunderwayHSBCChinaMetals&Mining–Summarytable(2011e)Sector/StockRICCcyPrice*TargetRatingPE(x)PB(x)RecentsharepricecorrectionhighlightsSteelopportunitiesinsteelandcoalBaosteel600019.SSRMB6.368.50OW(V)8.21.0AngangH0347.HKHKD11.0212

3、.50N(V)10.51.1thMaanshanH0323.HKHKD4.144.70N(V)9.70.912Five-YearPlanpositiveforcommodities.AsnotedbyAverage8.51.0HSBC’sChinastrategyandeconomicsteams,thekeygoalAluminiumChalcoH2600.HKHKD7.088.50N(V)20.51.5ofthe12thFive-YearPlanistopursueamorebalanced,Zhongwan

4、g1333.HKHKD4.255.00N(V)7.91.1Average14.81.3sustainabledomesticgrowthmodel.ThiswillbebasedonCopperliftingdomesticconsumptionrates(loweringinvestmentandJiangxiH0358.HKHKD22.6020.00UW(V)14.41.8Average14.41.8exportreliance)andreducingnationwidecarbonintensity.InC

5、oalChinaCoalH1898.HKHKD12.4818.60OW(V)11.31.7ourview,futuredomesticcommoditiesdemandwillshiftChinaShenhuaH1088.HKHKD33.5045.00OW(V)12.52.4frombeingconstruction/infrastructure-driventomoreYanzhouCoalH1171.HKHKD21.3525.60OW(V)11.32.2HidiliIntl.1393.HKHKD7.468.2

6、0N(V)10.91.7consumer-basedwhileabsolutelevelsofcommoditiesFushanIntl.0639.HKHKD5.374.50N(V)14.41.2Average11.81.9consumptionwillremainsupported.Fromthesupplyside,ChinaMetals&Mining13.21.8webelievethefocusonmeetingenvironmentaltargetsandSource:Bloomberg,HSBCest

7、imates.*Closingpriceson24November2010reducingobsoleteandhighpollutingcapacityshouldhelpChinacontainthethreatofovercapacity.26November2010DanielKang*EnduseactivityandtradesofterinOctoberbutPMIRegionalHeadofMetals&MiningResearch,Asia-Pacificremainsinexpansionmo

8、de.OctoberdataindicatorswereTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited(HK)softersequentially.Keyconstructionandmanufacturing+85229966669danielkang@hsbc.com.hkSarahMak*indicatorswered