德意志银行：2013年中国风电行业研究报告

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongChinaWind7January2013UtilitiesUtilitiesDevelopersForecastChangeKai-TingWong,CFAMichaelTong,CFATheworstisbehindus;industryResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036235(+852)22036167tailwindsaheadkai-ting.wong@db.commichael.tong@db.c

2、om2013willbeabetteryearduetoseveralre-ratingcatalystsEricCheng,CFAAfterunderperformingtheHSCEIindexby30%in2012duetotherapidResearchAnalystdeclineinthecarbonpriceandpersistentgridcurtailmentproblems,China(+852)22036202winddevelopers’sharepricesarenowtradingatthelowendoftheirhistori

3、caleric-ct.cheng@db.comvaluationbandsandwellbelowreplacementcost.WeseevaluationsasveryattractiveatcurrentdepressedlevelsgivenindustryfundamentalswillimproveToppicksonbothnear-andmedium-termcatalysts.WemaintainBuyonallwinddevelopers;Longyuanistoppickwithourtargetpriceimplyingc.25%u

4、pside.LongyuanPower(0916.HK),HKD5.55BuyV-shapedearningsrecoveryin2013-14ECompaniesFeaturedChina’swinddevelopersshouldstarttopost3-200%EPSgrowthin2013afterasharpdeclinein2012,given15-20%capacitygrowth,higheraveragewindLongyuanPower(0916.HK),HKD5.55Buyutilizationonprojectdiversifica

5、tion,thebottoming-outofcarbonprices,and2011A2012E2013Elowerfinancingcostduetoratecutsin2012andthereceiptoflump-sumtariffP/E(x)16.512.612.2premiumpaymentsfromthegovernment.From2014,winddeveloperswillEV/EBITDA(x)10.98.98.3continuetopoststrongearningsgrowthgiventhevisiblecapacitypipe

6、lineandPrice/book(x)1.51.01.0turnaroundingridcurtailmentuponthecommencementofpumpstoragefacilitiesandUHVtransmissionlines.HuanengRenewables(0958.HK),HKD1.50Buy2011A2012E2013EMoresupportivepoliciestobeannouncedP/E(x)10.6820.9712.76AccordingtoChina’s12thFive-YearPlan,Chinaaimstoincr

7、easeitswindEV/EBITDA(x)9.49.38.8capacityto104GWby2015and200GWby2020,whilewindpoweroutputPrice/book(x)1.00.90.8shouldreach190bnkWhand390bnkWhrespectively.ThisimpliesChina’saveragewindpowerutilizationneedstoimproveby15%or300hrsfromtheDatangRenewable(1798.HK),HKD1.08Buy2012levels.A10

8、0hrimprovementinutilizationwillra